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After the confusion of a November Masters in 2020 followed by a second one five months later, the 2022 edition seems like a reset and a return to normality. As is normally the case, the Masters ends a lengthy wait for major championship golf, the last one being played back in the summer of 2021 when Collin Morikawa won the Open Championship. Back then, Scottie Scheffler ended the battle for the Claret Jug as World No.17. He enters this week as the World No.1 after three wins in five starts to show how quickly things can change. Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Masters when top of the world rankings so Scheffler has a recent positive precedent. The familiarity of Augusta National is one of the great appeals of Masters week although there are always constant changes to the course and this time holes No.11 and No.15 have been toughened up. The par-4 11th now plays 520 yards. Players have also talked about some light rough being removed, making errant drives bounce further towards trouble. While DJ’s winning score of 20-under can be explained by the course being far softer in November, last year’s set-up was much tougher as Hideki Matsuyama was the only player to score in double digits under par. Overall, eight of the last 11 editions have been won with scores between -8 and -15 so that’s usually the sweet spot. As for recent champions, the last six winners have seen three players from the United States, two from Europe and one from Japan land the famed Green Jacket. Angles to consider 1/ Course form It’s no great surprise that the only Major played on the same layout each year should have course form as a key predictor. Matsuyama had a previous top five, DJ had great course form and it’s very rare to find a winner who hasn’t at least managed a top 10 at Augusta National. 2/ Current form This is a demanding test and coming in with mixed form is far from ideal. Five of the previous eight Masters champions had posted a win that same season while another had finished second. 3/ Greens In Regulation The top four in last year’s Masters ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 7th for GIR while DJ hit more greens than anyone when taking the title in 2020, as did Tiger in his 2019 triumph. It’s rare to find any winner not high up in GIR which feeds into the idea that Augusta is a ‘second-shot course’. 4/ Creativity around the greens The three podium finishers in 2020 ranked in the top five for Scrambling. Last year, Strokes Gained: Around The Green stats were available and five of the top six ranked in the top nine in that category. Those numbers back up the belief that short-game wizardry is big at Augusta. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Cameron Smith The Aussie looks to have the perfect profile for success at Augusta National this week. Looking at the above angles, he’s a course horse after finishes of second, fifth and 10th in the last four years. Second, he’s had two wins this season, the 2022 opener in Hawaii and, last time out, the prestigious Players Championship. Finally, Smith is 5th for Greens In Regulation this season and 21st for SG: Around The Green. Xander Schauffele Schauffele is always a great each-way play in the majors having racked up a string of top sixes. That includes finishing third here last year and runner-up in 2019. The American has a third and two top 15s in his last four strokeplay events so his game is ticking over nicely and he looks strong on the stats, ranking 35th for GIR and in the top 25% on Tour for Around The Green. Brian Harman Harman may not have the length of others but three of his last five rounds at Augusta National have been in the 60s. Tied 12th last year, he returns in solid form after some good play this season that includes a third at The American Express, a fifth at the Valspar Championship and 14th in Phoenix. Ranked 37th in Scrambling and 41st for GIR, he looks a value outsider. Tips 1-2; +0.30pts 1.5pts e.w. Cameron Smith at 16/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 3rd 1.25pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 0.25pts e.w. Brian Harman at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
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