Muirfield Village is always a favourite stop for the PGA Tour’s elite and that’s the case again in 2022 with seven of the world’s top 10 teeing it up in Ohio.
The Memorial Tournament is rich in history and Jon Rahm added another layer last year, although in unwanted fashion.
The Spaniard was huge odds-on to make a successful defence of his title when powering into a six-shot lead after 54 holes. But at the end of his third round, Rahm was told he had tested positive for Covid and that meant an automatic withdrawal.
The man to cash in was Patrick Cantlay, victory giving the American his second Memorial win in three years.
The course underwent some renovations last year but all the main protagonists had 'previous' there so the changes appeared to make little difference.
Muirfield Village has generous fairways, thick rough, super-fast greens and, as with Jack Nicklaus designs, puts an emphasis on quality iron shots.
Many see it as a good warm-up for the US Open later this month.
Cantlay won with 13-under in 2021 after beating Collin Morikawa in a play-off. That means six of the last eight editions have had a winning score of -13 to -15.
Americans have won five of the last six Memorials and although class usually prevails, the victories for David Lingmerth (2015) and William McGirt (2016) show that shocks can happen too.
The weather forecast shows temperatures rising throughout the week to around the mid-80s on Sunday.
There could be some rain on Thursday while winds are on the light side and particularly modest on the weekend.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Approach
The top five were all in the top 10 for this category last year. Winner Cantlay gained over six shots on approach. Rahm was 8th when he won in 2020 (and also sat 1st before his DQ last year) with runner-up Ryan Palmer 1st. The top four were all in the top eight for SG: Approach in 2019.
2/ Par 5 Performance
There are four to go at and they are significant. Scottie Scheffler played them in a top-ranked 11-under last year and finished solo third. Runner-up Morikawa was 2nd for Par 5s along with sixth-placed Shane Lowry. Rahm was 2nd on the four long holes (-9) when he won and the top three in 2019 were all joint-first (-12) for the Par 5s.
3/ Course form
There’s definitely a strong element of certain players excelling at the course while others, at a similar position in the world rankings, repeatedly failing. Cameron Smith, for example, has form of MC-68-MC-MC-65-MC. Cantlay’s is 1-32-7-1-4.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Xander Schauffele
The American has rather teased each-way backers at Muirfield Village with a run of 14-14-13-11 in his last four visits. But he clearly likes the course and it will just take a shot or two to make the places. Schauffele is 16th for SG: Approach, 23rd for Par 5s and is in decent nick after fifth at the Byron Nelson followed by tied 13th in the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. He had strong Approach numbers in both.
Hideki Matsuyama
The Japanese star is a past winner at Muirfield Village and also has a fifth, a sixth and two other top 25s.Third at the Byron Nelson two starts ago when ranked 1st for SG: Approach, he’s 6th in the season-long SGA charts and 4th for Par 5 Scoring Average. In other words, he ticks every box.
Jon Rahm
Rather than try and pick out a big price, I’ve saved a point in the staking plan for Rahm. As he showed when winning the US Open at Torrey Pines last year, he has favourite courses and this is very much one of them. He’s 22nd in Approach, 13th for Par 5s and should really be coming here as the two-time defending champion. A win in Mexico two starts ago suggests he’s ready to add another trophy following his unfortunate WD here last year.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.25pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Hills, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th
