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A new event on the PGA Tour this week, but far from a new tournament. In fact, the Mexico Open has a history stretching back to 1944 when it was played at Chapultepec – previously home of the WGC Mexico Championship. It’s gone up in the world since then. Early in the 20th century it became part of the Tour de la Americas (now the PGA Tour LatinoAmerica), shortly after it was co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour and in 2008 it briefly joined what is now the Korn Ferry Tour. And now it graduates to the PGA Tour with new venue Vidanta Vallarta. The resort has three courses and will host the tournament on the Greg Norman Signature layout. It features a fair amount of water and a backdrop of the Sierra Nevada mountains. The designer and the location is not the only familiar detail – it also has paspalum grass and a par of 71. Where’s that remind you of? El Camaleon. Of course the difference is that the latter is right by the ocean and very blustery, but it’s worth bearing in mind. In fact, the PGA Tour weather prediction hints at blustery breezes, perhaps because the resort is not right by the ocean, but only a mile away. A more significant difference is that the course is 7,456 yards and El Camaleon only a touch over 7,000 yards (and there are five rather than four par-3s).
Angles to consider 1/ Regional form The second tier has been visiting Central and South America for a while now and it has become clear that some PGA Tour players can cope with that – and others can’t It’s probably more relevant to try and spot those who struggle as much as those who thrive. 2/ Paspalum greens El Camaleon is worth bearing in mind with all those similarities, but mostly think of the grass. Other courses to feature it are Kiawah Island and Puntacana. 3/ Greg Norman designs In addition to El Camaleon, he is responsible for Tiburon, The Oaks at San Antonio and TPC Sugarloaf on the PGA Tour, and Jumeirah’s Earth and Fire layouts on the DP World Tour.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Aaron Wise He was T21st last time out at Harbour Town when third at halfway and fifth after 54 holes. He has four top 20s from his last five starts at El Camaleon and he ended seven of his last eight laps there in the top seven, when second in 2020 and T15th last year. Can add decent length from the tee to that good El Camaleon form. Carlos Ortiz Both Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz have four top 20s from their last four starts on home soil – and both have one PGA Tour win, too. But Ortiz is a much bigger price this week. There’s good reason – those first two stats are correct, but Ancer is higher in the world rankings, more consistent, performs better at a higher level and is in better form. But with just that one win he’s a little short. Ortiz has four top 10s at El Camaleon, two of them seconds. He’s also won on the second tier at home and he is backed by the sponsor, with some course experience behind him. Graeme McDowell He’s missed a lot of cuts recently and three in his last six starts, but the other three times he featured on the front page of the leaderboard at some point, even if he did only ultimately land two top 25s. The two most recent of those efforts were at Corales Puntacana and Harbour Town – windy, breezy, grainy greens. He’s won at El Camaleon and he’s won at Royal Greens in Saudi too – another track with paspalum greens. Austin Smotherman In the top two through 54 holes at Norman’s Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio on the second tier, a winner at the Norman-designed The Grove (Tennessee) at that level too, and even a winner in Mexico on the third tier. Made five of his last seven cuts.
Tips: 1-3; -0.75pts 1pt e.w. Aaron Wise at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 6th 1pt e.w. Carlos Ortiz at 50/1 (W Hill, P Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 51st 0.5pt e.w. Graeme McDowell at 150/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 33rd 0.5pt e.w. Austin Smotherman at 125/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 67th
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