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The PGA Tour is back at Pebble Beach and, unlike last year’s tweak to just two courses, it is back to the old ways this week: the three course format. Pebble hosts two rounds, including the crucial final round, with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula holding one each. They are all similar enough tests, although the latter two are not sufficiently long enough to host a major. Pebble in June tends to defend itself with hard turf. This time of year the defence is soft conditions. The fairways are wide and when soft even easier to hit. But the greens are tiny. They are also bumpy. With so many feet on small surfaces they become less perfect than pros expect. Patience can wear thin for some. And that’s before we even take Poa Annua into the equation. A quirk this year is that this week runs straight after the visit to Torrey Pines which means a fortnight of Poa – will that impact? Usually there is a pit stop at TPC Scottsdale in-between. There are also players missing from the field – those who have accepted the appearance money to make the trip to Saudi Arabia. Jordan Spieth once said of the event: “Last year was the first year where I lowered my expectations on the greens and just accepted hitting putts at the right speed and putting them around the right line, and if they fell, they fell. If they didn’t, move on and hit as many greens in regulation as possible.” While Gary Woodland made the observation that: “A lot of this week is mental too. You’re playing with amateurs, they’re long rounds, it’s a mental grind. So I think you have to be prepared for that and be mentally prepared for it.”
Angles to consider 1/ Par-4s Six of the last seven winners of this tournament ranked top two for the par-4 holes. 2/ Hitting the greens What all three tracks have in common, other than location, is that they have small greens – Pebble has the tiniest on tour, in fact. They are hard to hit because of that but, also, these is a difficulty factor in saving par as Phil Mickelson has referenced: “It’s not just putting on, but chipping on, chipping into and hitting full shots into Poa (that is tricky). It can be challenging for guys if they’re not used to it.” 3/ Course/Poa Annua form Nine of the last 10 winners had already finished top 10 in the tournament- and the one man who hadn’t (Ted Potter) had finished T16th. Winners also tend to be very good on Poa Annua in California in general (Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Riviera, Silverado).
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jordan Spieth A nine-time starter in the event, he won it in 2017, led after 54 holes last year and has only once finished outside the top 25. Ranks 35th for Greens in Regulation and 43rd for Par 4 Performance this season. Missed the cut last week, but has rarely played Torrey Pines well. Michael Thompson Finished top 15 in three of his last five starts including fifth on the small greens at Waialae and T11th last week at Torrey Pines. In both of those his stats were excellent, hitting lots of greens and very good around the greens too (trad and SG). He’s got top 20s at Silverado, Torrey Pines, Riviera and here. He was T10th in this event three years ago. Scott Stallings Contended at Silverado ahead of finishing tied sixth in September and closed last week at Torrey Pines with a fine 66 for T46th. He’s finished third, seventh, T14th and T30th in this tournament.
Tips: 1-2; +0.75pts 1.25pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 2nd 1pt e.w. Michael Thompson at 66/1 (Unibet, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 0.75pt e.w. Scott Stallings at 100/1 (Skybet, BF Sportsbook, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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