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After the crowds were reduced in number due to Covid last year, we’re back to proper party time at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Arizona. The rowdy crowds, from college students to old-timers who should know better, are a big feature of the event. Most famously, they gather at the 16th hole where boos, cheers and side bets on who might hit the green go up in proportion to the alcohol consumption. Surely it was the scene of the loudest noise ever heard on a golf course when a young Tiger Woods made a hole-in-one there in 1997. The 17th is just as key in terms of deciding the outcome. It’s a driveable par 4 where all sorts of numbers are possible. The tournament was first played at TPC Scottsdale in 1987 and is one of the staples of the early-season West Coast Swing. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the course is a par 71 with Bermuda greens overseeded with a Bent mix. A check of the list of past champions shows several repeat winners. Phil Mickelson won for a third time in 2013, Hideki Matsuyama won back-to-back in 2016 and 2017 while Brooks Koepka also became a dual winner last year when adding to his 2015 success. This week’s field is loaded with talent and four of the top seven in the world take part – Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas. Angles to consider 1/ Course form This seems to be a theme for the well-established early-season West Coast events and it’s definitely the case here as shown by the list of repeat winners. It’s rare to find a winner who hasn’t previously had at least a finish in the top dozen. 2/ SG: Approach While Strokes Gained: Tee To Green (which also incorporate Off The Tee and Around The Green) numbers are important, it can be whittled down further to just SG: Approach. From 2016 to 2021 the six winners were ranked 4th, 1st, 2nd, 17th, 1st and 2nd in this category. 3/ Par 4 Scoring Ahead of last year, three of the last five winners had topped the Par 4 rankings for the week. Koepka couldn’t make that four in six but runner-up Kyoung-Hoon Lee finished second (-9) on the par 4s. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Hideki Matsuyama The Masters champion has two wins, a second and a fourth in this event and returns to one of his favourite tracks in fantastic form after two wins in his last four starts. He ranks in the top 20 for both SG: Approach and Par 4 Scoring this season so must have every chance of getting in the mix again. Scottie Scheffler Scheffler had his second look at TPC Scottsdale last year and was third going into the final round after laps of 67-65-66 before finishing tied seventh via a closing 70. He ranked 1st for Par 4 Scoring that week (-10) and is 37th in that category this season. The Texan ranked 3rd for SG: Approach in his last start (Farmers Insurance) so all the boxes are ticked. Troy Merritt Matsuyama and Scheffler have eaten up most of the staking plan but there’s room for a big outsider and the one who could shine is Troy Merritt. He’s 22nd for Par 4 Scoring this season and 6th for SG: Approach. He ranked second for the latter category when fourth at Pebble Beach last week while he shot middle rounds of 66-65 here in his third latest visit when making the top 25. Tips: 2-1; +37.45pts 1.5pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 8th 1.25pts e.w. Scottie Scheffler at 25/1 (William Hill, Skybet, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 1st 0.25pts e.w. Troy Merritt at 125/1 (Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 38th
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