In March it acts as a mouthwatering lead into the Majors season which is now a monthly affair: April (US Masters), May (US PGA), June (US Open) and July (Open Championship).
TPC Sawgrass is certainly a tough test although Pete Dye’s most famous creation is scorable too.
The last two weeks in Florida have been gruelling and 5-under was Scottie Scheffler’s winning score at Bay Hill last Sunday. Prior to that, Sepp Straka was the only player to finish in double digits under par at the Honda Classic.
Looking at Players Championship scores, 11 of the last 12 have been won with tallies from 12-under to 18-under.
As for the two in the new March date, Rory McIlroy scored a one-shot win with 16-under in 2019 while Justin Thomas fired 14-under to edge out Lee Westwood 12 months ago.
The 2020 event was cancelled after 18 holes due to the pandemic, much to the chagrin of Hideki Matsuyama, who had opened with a sparkling 9-under 63.
But while there are plenty of birdies to be found on the par 72, double bogeys lurk too, most obviously at the infamous par-3 17th island hole.
Last year, no less than 35 balls ended in the water on day one as the winds blew and the green was set to ultra-firm by the grounds crew. It relented over the next three days but 17 still remains a psychologist test which every prospective winner has to pass.
Weather is key, therefore, and it looks a mixed forecast with the threat mix of rain and t-storms over the first two days before a sunnier weekend. As for the wind, it could pick up to 20mph on Saturday.
Angles to consider
1/ All-Around
Justin Thomas was third in this category - a measure of all facets of the game - when winning last year and that made him the 10th winner in the last 12 years to rank in the top five for All-Around when winning the Players. All parts of the game need to be on the money.
2/ Florida form
Plenty of common traits apply to the courses in Florida: water, wind and bermuda greens. So it makes sense that prowess in the area, ideally recent, counts for plenty. The stats show that eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 20 in their previous Florida start while almost all had decent Sawgrass form.
3/ Par 4 Scoring
Justin Thomas's route to victory last year came by demolishing the four Par 5s. However, in three of the previous five years, the winner ranked 1st in Par 4 Scoring.
4/ Class
Not surprisingly for an event when the world's elite gather, the victor is normally a high-class performer who has won huge events. That's shown by six of the last eight winners being major champions.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Hideki Matsuyama
This is Matsuyama's first Sawgrass appearance as a major champion and he has some notable form at the course: five top 25s in seven attempts, including an eighth and a ninth. He was also the R1 leader in 2020 before the event was halted. A winner of two of his last seven starts (Zozo and Sony Open), he warmed up with T20 at Bay Hill last week. The Japanese golfer ranks 11th for All-Around and 20th for Par 4s so looks a great fit.
Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen is another major champion and went so close to becoming a multiple one last season. He's also shown his liking for this course by finishing runner-up (2017) and was second in another Florida event, the 2019 Valspar. The South African is 2nd on the All-Around rankings this year and 3rd for Par 4 Scoring.
Shane Lowry
Let's get a third major winner on board. Lowry has finished in the top seven for All-Around in four of his last five starts and his latest outing saw him finish runner-up at the Honda Classic when he led on the back nine. The Florida-based Lowry was eighth here last year after shooting in the 60s in three of his four rounds.
Tips 0-2; -4.00pts
1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) dns
1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 40/1 (Skybet, Boylesports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 42nd
1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 35/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 13th
