We’re into the fourth playing of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit this year so patterns are starting to emerge.
Twelve months ago, those angles helped us pick one of the playoff losers and two others who finished in the top 15 so a repeat of last year’s thinking makes sense. More on that below.
The tournament takes place at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan and we're on a Donald Ross parkland track with tree-lined fairways.
Par is 72 and the course measures 7,334 yards. The greens are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa Annua.
It’s the penultimate event of the regular season as players battle to make the top 125 finishers in the FedEx Cup points list.
It’s fair to class this event in the bracket of late-season birdie-fest.
Nate Lashley won the inaugural edition with 25-under, Bryson DeChambeau fired 23-under to triumph in 2020 while three players posted 18-under last year before Cam Davis came through a playoff to win.
Patrick Cantlay, currently ranked 6th in the FedEx Cup rankings, heads the betting while last week’s 3M Open winner Tony Finau also lines up.
The weather forecast suggests a warm week although it could get quite windy on the opening two days.
Angles to consider
1/ Driving Distance
Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff - two monster drivers - finished 1st and 2nd in 2020 and two of last year’s playoff contenders - Cam Davis and Joaquin Niemann - also give it a big wallop.
2/ Strokes Gained Putting
Nate Lashley ranked 2nd for SGP when winning in 2019 while DeChambeau was 1st in that category in 2020. Lots of the best putters had excellent weeks last year. Big hitting and strong SGP numbers seem like a winning formula.
3/ Par Breakers
Making birdies and eagles is the name of the game in this event and the PGA Tour’s Par Breaker stat is a measure of both. Davis (winner) and Merritt (playoff loser) led the way in this category last year as both racked up 23 birdies and an eagle.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Adam Scott
The Aussie is in fine form after top 15s in the last two majors. Looking at his stats, Scott is 16th in Driving Distance, 39th in SG: Putting and 30th in Par Breakers. In other words, the former Masters champ should really take to this course and he looks a decent price at 33/1.
Maverick McNealy
The only other player in the top 50 for all the three angles we’re using is McNealy. He’s 43rd in Driving Distance, 32nd for SGP and 11th in Par Breakers. We know he’s a good fit because he’s shown it already with tied eighth on debut and tied 21st last year. Like Scott, he’s in good form too after two top 10s in his last three starts in America.
Max Homa
Homa gives it a good bash off the tee (53rd in DD) and putts well too (41st for SGP). You’ll also find him at 39th in Par Breakers. A winner at Wells Fargo in May and fifth at Memorial In June, he was tied 25th here last year, shooting a 65 in round two.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 33/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 37th
0.75pts e.w. Maverick McNealy at 50/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
1.25pts e.w. Max Homa at 25/1 (SkyBet, Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 24th
