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A ninth visit to the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi for an event which was first played in 1968. When Sergio Garcia won in 2020 he was just the third major champion to add his name to the honours board which reveals that this is, in general, a week for the journeymen to make hay. In time, last year’s winner Sam Burns may well join the Spaniard as a major winner and it is maybe something of a surprise that he returns to defend this week after playing his part in Team USA’s triumph at the Presidents Cup (he played better than his points haul suggested). The John Fought-designed layout is a par-72 set at around 7,441-yards with rapid Bermuda grass greens and notably sticky Bermuda grass on the fairways and in the rough (the humid conditions in Mississippi promote this stickiness). Cameron Champ said after his win here that the rough is nasty, with the ball settling deep in the roots. Discussing the same factor Charley Hoffman said: “You've got to be in the fairway to put yourself in the right position on the green because you're playing big-time defence if you don't hit it in the fairway. You've definitely got to know where to putt from on these greens. They're rolling a good 13, 14. I expect them to speed up and firm up and get even more challenging.” And here’s Doug Ghim: “You need to be in the fairway to be able to attack. Certain greens are really shallow and firm and really hard to get the ball in the right spot if you’re not coming out of the fairway.” As we’ll see from the stats these thoughts seem to make sense, as does Brandt Snedeker’s comment that: “I’ve done a lot of research on it … it’s more of a putting contest where the greens are perfect.” A look at previous winners shows us that they are either sensational from the tee and with approaches (Burns and Garcia for example), or the excel from the tee and make up for less than stellar approaches with a hot putter. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Off the Tee Burns and Garcia ranked first in this category, the previous two winners ranked fourth and second. In 2016 Cody Gribble won when ninth. 2/ Strokes Gained Approach and/or Putting Burns and Garcia both ranked third for Approaches but were 57th and 28th for Putting. The five winners before them ranked fifth, second, second, first and first. 3/ Conditions Both Burns and Garcia play well on Bermuda with a bank of good form in hot, humid destinations (Burns is from Louisiana). Before them, Ryan Armour had a win in Panama, Nick Taylor’s best finish on the second tier had been there, Gribble had led at halfway in Colombia, Sebastian Munoz hails from there and Peter Malnati had a win in Brazil. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Denny McCarthy He has top 10s in Panama and Mexico, but has also just very obviously played his best golf on Bermuda grass. He won on the second tier in Florida and has top 10s at Corales, Innisbrook, Houston, Sea Island, Sedgefield, Port Royal, PGA National and, indeed, here at Jackson. Also, last season he started translating that good form onto all courses highlighting that he’s more comfortable at this level. He opened the season with 25th and his record here goes beyond just one 10: he has been top 20 in each of the last four years including seventh in 2018, sixth in 2020 and second with 18 holes to play last year. JT Poston Trey Mullinax came close but Poston it is. He ended last season in great nick, with second and first in consecutive weeks followed by a run of five top 40s that included being ninth best scorer at the Tour Championship. He’s won on Bermuda and is 5-for-6 at the course with 11th in 2019 and third in 2020 the highlights. Austin Smotherman The Californian was sitting just four shots back of the lead heading into the final round of the season starter at Silverado before finishing 25th. The best elements of his game are Off the Tee and Approach. He ranked 24th and 32nd for those categories last season. And that first start of this campaign two weeks ago? His best putting effort of the last year. He’s a course debutant but has always enjoyed hot, humid and Bermuda. He’s won in Mexico, had a raft of top 10s on the Latino America Tour and his win on the second tier was on Bermuda too. Andrew Putnam A rare four picks this week with two at three figures. Putnam is a past winner in Panama with plenty of good form in South America and also the southern states. He has a particularly good record at Southwind in Tennessee and was fifth there last month, part of a good finish to the season.
Tips: 0-4; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 39th 1pt e.w. JT Poston at 33/1 (Spreadex 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 0.5pt e.w. Austin Smotherman at 150/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook, W Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 67th 0.5pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 30th
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