The PGA Tour heads back out west for this week’s Shriners Children’s Open.
It’s a 24-hour drive from Mississippi to Las Vegas or more realistically a five-hour flight.
Fields at this time of the year are usually low in quality and that’s the general case although 10 players who contested the recent Presidents Cup have flown into Sin City - Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Joohyung Kim, Cameron Davis, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Pendrith, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, KH Lee and Mito Pereira.
Cantlay won this event five years ago with -9 but that score, due to heavy winds, is very much the outlier.
A standard year at TPC Summerlin is a birdie-fest won with 20-under or better.
The last four? Sungjae Im won with -24 last year, Martin Laird and Kevin Na both fired -23 while Bryson DeChambeau shot -21.
With gentle winds forecast this year, expect the winning number to be something similar.
TPC Summerlin is a 7,225-yard par 71 designed by Bobby Weed. It’s a resort course and the field average score last year was 68.9.
The Bentgrass greens have been redone this year and perhaps won’t be as fast as usual.
Angles to consider
1/ Course form
Last year’s winner, Sungjae Im, had logged top 15s in his only two previous starts at TPC Summerlin. The two previous winners, Martin Laird (2020) and Kevin Na (2019), were winning at this venue for a second time. Patrick Cantlay has finished 2-2-8 since his win in 2017. In short, course form is a key pointer.
2/ Par 4 Performance
Im was -15 on the Par 4s last year and that means four of the last six winners ranked in the top two in that category. With one extra Par 4 on this Par 71 layout, it makes sense.
3/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
Im topped this category last year (10.488) while Laird was 2nd for TTG in 2020. Na won due to a red-hot flatstick but it’s what you do before pulling out the putter that usually counts for most. DeChambeau also proved it in 2018 when 1st for TTG.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Aaron Wise
A Las Vegas resident for the last six years, Wise has put that local knowledge to good use with eighth place in 2021, 10th on debut in 2016 and 15th in 2018. He’s now playing the best golf of his career and his reputation as a birdie machine suggests everything could come together this week. The American was 25th for both SG: Tee To Green and Par 4 Performance last season.
Tom Hoge
Hoge, who won on the West Coast at Pebble Beach earlier this year, has plenty of good course form here too. He was 7th in 2017, 24th in 2020 and 14th last year. He’s started this season with a 12th at the Fortinet where he ranked 10th SG: Tee To Green. He was 2nd in that TTG category when 4th at the 3M Open five starts ago.
Brian Harman
Harman has landed in the top 20 in three of his last four visits to TPC Summerlin, shooting two 63s and a 64 during that run. His summer included 8th at the Travelers, an excellent 6th in the Open Championship and 3rd at the St Jude Championship. Throw in some strong Tee To Green numbers in those events and a Par 4 Performance rank of 13th last season and he looks well worth a go at 40s.
Tips 1-2; +3.00pts
