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Preview & Tips

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Sony Open in Hawaii
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The PGA Tour may only play in Hawaii for two weeks every year, but it remains a very popular spot and one reason is the contrast of the two tests.

Last week’s action in the Tournament of Champions saw a par-73 course that hikes up, down and across the slopes of Kapalua; this week, it’s a par-70 and Waialae Country Club is completely flat.

That said, there are plenty of constants to consider. The greens continue to have grainy Bermuda grass on them, both courses are very soft this year, birdies were essential last week and are likely to be this week as well. The big question will surround the wind – there was none last week and the field went low; it would be nice if the course had some protection this week.

The forecast, however, suggests breezes in the week, little to nothing at the weekend. So, it’s likely to be another low one.

In all, 24 players will compete this week having teed it up last week as well. Among them, Cameron Smith will seek to ride the wave of his success and also land a second Sony Open title; Justin Thomas went low on Saturday and has a 59 at Waialae; Bryson DeChambeau’s tee shots might be something to keep an eye on – will he go all-out-attack?

If he does, he will be flying in the face of tour common wisdom.

Brandt Snedeker has said: “You’ve got to really think your way round here. It's not just step up and bash it. You can hit any club you want to off every tee. You can hit driver if you want, you can hit 4-iron off the tee, and there is really no right or wrong way to do it.”

While Justin Thomas, who has big-hitting in the locker should he desire it, is even more wary: “The biggest thing is just getting it in play, because I can just hit a lot of 2-irons out here and then I’m having short irons in, and I felt comfortable enough with those that I could hit my numbers.”


Angles to consider

1/ Putting

Last year’s winner Kevin Na somewhat broke a trend in ranking only 22nd for Strokes Gained Putting. Before him, the five winners ranked second, third, third first and fifth. In traditional stat terms, Na did show up however – he ranked sixth for Putt Average and the last five winners all ranked top six.

2/ Approach play

When Smith won in 2020 he ranked a poor 53rd in SG Approach and he was quite an outlier. The other five of the last half dozen winners ranked fifth, seventh, third, fourth and second (Brendan Steele, runner-up to Smith, ranked second). On this tricky little test this aspect of the game matters.

3/ Plantation

Eight of the last ten winners at Waialae had played at Plantation the week before. It’s not impossible to win without that warm-up, but it does seem to help. One of those exceptions was Smith who had played a lot of golf down under in December.

4/ Conditions

Winners here tend to play good golf on similar tests. Think El Camaleon and Harbour Town (by the sea, grainy greens, blustery) and Colonial (lots of doglegs).


Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.


Jason Kokrak

It’s not often you can back a player who has won three of his last 30 starts (four in 31 if you count the QBE Shootout). Moreover, three of those four wins have good vibes for this week. The second of them came at Colonial Country Club, the value of which is discussed above. The third came at the end of last year, on Bermuda greens as this week. The fourth came in combination with Kevin Na, this week’s defending champion. Kokrak played last week and didn’t do too well, but that’s boosted his price and he’s very rarely played well on undulating tracks. He’s an excellent tee to green player and his course form is a little better than it seems at first glance: he’s made five straight cuts, was fifth at halfway in 2014, eighth with 18 holes to play in 2015 and tied for the lead after 18 holes last year.

Harris English

He hasn’t had a great time since making his Ryder Cup debut. In fact his form dropped right off. But he played the QBE Shootout in much better fettle and improved with every round on defence of his title last week. Prior to his career slump he landed three top 10s at Waialae and but for a poor first round might easily have done so last year (surely a reaction to winning the week before). His best golf comes at spots that are a great fit for this week: wins at Southwind, El Camaleon, even River Highlands isn’t the worse, plus second at Colonial.

Joel Dahmen

A third selection who played last week. Dahmen has shown good recent form for both SG Approach (fifth in Houston when fifth on the leaderboard too) and SG Putting (eighth at Sea Island). Last year he won in the Dominican Republic (far from a bad pointer for this week). His course form is improving: T73rd-T22nd-T12th and in the latter he was T103rd after 18 holes before carding 66-68-66.


Tips:  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 45/1 (SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)  17th

1pt e.w. Harris English at 35/1 (SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)  55th

1pt e.w. Joel Dahmen at 66/1 (Skybet, BF Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)  mc