In terms of peak tipping weeks, this was the event that served us best last year.
We didn’t quite have the 1-2-3 but getting 1st, 4th and 5th from our three picks was pretty decent - especially when those prices were 45/1, 45/1 and 22/1.
Abraham Ancer took the title, the Mexican shooting 16-under before coming through a playoff against Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama.
Harris English took fourth and Daniel Berger tied fifth to give us a handsome payout of +52.25pts for the week.
That was a WGC event but this year the tournament is played as the first leg of the three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs.
That means a stellar field although LIV defector Ancer won’t be around to defend.
Being a regular tour event, then a WGC for two years and now a Playoff opener hints at chaos but there is a reassuring constant as this St Jude event has always been staged at TPC Southwind in Memphis.
It’s a par 70 with Bermuda greens and has staged PGA Tour golf since 1989.
Weather in Memphis can be quite oppressive at this time of year and temperatures could touch 100 degrees during the back nine on Sunday afternoon.
Rory McIlroy, playing for the first time since his disappointing near-miss at St Andrews, is the clear favourite at around 11/1.
Ancer won last year but nine of the previous 10 champions at the course were American.
Angles to consider
1/ Par 4 Scoring
Obviously after last year’s success we’re going to repeat the winning formula and the first angle is proficiency on Par 4s (there are two extra ones on this par 70). Ancer continued the trend when 3rd for Par 4 scoring here last year. He’d gone into the event ranked 2nd for Par 4 Performance that season.
2/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
Again, the St Jude winner did it via Tee To Green excellence rather than riding a hot putter. Ancer was 4th for TTG last year, the leader in that category (Hidei Matsuyama) losing a playoff. Justin Thomas was 1st for TTG when winning on this course in 2020 and he actually had negative SG: Putting numbers for the week
3/ Course form
Two of our picks last year - English and Berger - were past winners at TPC Southwind so again they validated the importance of course form. Berger is actually a double champion, as is Dustin Johnson. Course form has to be high on the list again.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Sam Burns
The American is a three-time winner on the PGA Tour this season and was a playoff loser in this event 12 months ago. That debut performance included two 64s and that was the number he shot on day four of the Open Championship at St Andrews in his latest start. Burns is 17th in Par 4 Scoring this season and 24th for SG: Tee To Green so looks a great fit.
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris enjoyed a strong debut at TPC Southwind last year, shooting 66-66-67-69 to finish tied eighth. He’s logged 6th, 2nd and 2nd in the three American majors this season and looks on the brink of that breakthrough first win, something Ancer achieved here in 2021. Zalatoris is currently 2nd for SG: Tee To Green and 24th in Par 4 Scoring.
Billy Horschel
Horschel ranked 1st for SG: Tee To Green when winning the Memorial Tournament in June and he’s 17th for Par 4 Scoring this season. In terms of course form, he’s posted five top 10s on this course and ranks it as one of his favourites. He was tied 21st at St Andrews, his best Open finish, and tied 27th at the Wyndham last week when breaking 70 in all four rounds.
Tips 1-2; +34.00pts
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th
1.25pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 1st
