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There was once a time when TPC Sugarloaf in Georgia hosted the Bellsouth Classic as the pre-Masters prep and it felt right. The right state and pretty much the right course. Phil Mickelson thought so. He was brilliant there. Fellow Augusta winners Mike Weir, Zach Johnson, Jose Maria Olazabal and Tiger Woods all had top fives there. In 2006 the top four was Mickelson, Johnson, Olazabal and Retief Goosen (also good at Augusta). Almost comical, really. Perhaps too neat. The Bellsouth Classic is now long gone and the last week of prep has bounced around a bit, currently settled on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the Texas Open which does have one thing in common with Sugarloaf: Greg Norman designed it. It’s a par-72 set up at around 7,400 yard with Bermuda grass on the greens and perhaps the biggest factor is the Texas constant: the wind. Mickelson, when he played the PGA Tour (or, maybe, was allowed to) said: “It’s very windy and tight. Can’t really unleash drivers the way you want to at Augusta so I probably used other weeks to get ready.” Charley Hoffman elaborated. “It gives you plenty of room out there but if you start hitting it un-solid you can find the native area very quickly,” he said. “If that happens, you’re just trying to get it back in play and hopefully have a putt for par or make a bogey and get out.” He further explained: “You tend to see guys make a big number trying to pull off a miracle shot and I think I played here enough to know if I get in a bad spot, take an unplayable, don’t try to pull off the miracle shot.” Past winner Kevin Chappell said: “I was third last year in Greens in Regulation and it’s such a difficult scrambling course because of the wind and how severe some of the runoffs are around the greens. It’s important to get the ball on the green when you can and not necessarily force a shot in there to try to get a birdie look because there’s not many out there.” Rickie Fowler concurred, saying: “There’s some tough, but fun second shots out here.” Angles to consider 1/ Approach Whether it is modern stats or traditional ones, the importance of the second shot is vital this week. Chappell ranked second for Strokes Gained Approach in his win and the last three winners have also excelled in that category: Andrew Landry was first in 2018, so was Corey Conners in 2019, Jordan Spieth ranked fourth last year. Chappell ranked third for Greens in Regulation, Landry and Conners first (and so did 2015 champion Jimmy Walker). 2/ Course form The early winners here did so on debut, but in more recent years the winner have dropped fairly big hints that they liked the test. Spieth, Chappell and Hoffman had already finished second, Walker third, Laird ninth, Steven Bowditch had been second at halfway the year before his win, and even Conners T26th in his only previous starts. 3/ Texas form Scott is a four-time winner in Texas, Spieth and Bowditch two-time winners, Laird had finished top 10 in three of his previous four starts there, Hoffman is gun in the Lone Star State.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jordan Spieth The defending champion, he loves a week before a major. In fact, he’s got three wins in such a situation from 19 starts. He’ll be keen to taste victory again with the Masters next week – like Phil Mickelson he’s not scared of peaking early, rather he wants to get on a wave and ride it. Davis Riley He won on the course on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and, while he did it in a fashion somewhat at odds with the route to PGA Tour success there (a hot putter), that was how he very nearly won last time out when second in the Valspar Championship. Charley Hoffman Pipped at the post by Spieth last year, he loves the course and Texas. On the track he has made 11 appearances, never missed a weekend and recorded nine top 15 finishes. In the state he has 25 top 20 (14 of them top 10s) from 53 starts. Austin Smotherman Second behind Riley on the second tier, 12th this season for SG Approach, and got to grips with the top level, making four of his last six cuts. Tips: 0-4; -6.00pts 1pt win Jordan Spieth at 14/1 (General) 35th 1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 63rd 1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 70/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 0.5pt e.w. Austin Smotherman at 150/1 (W Hill, P Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 61st
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