Trying to replicate the idea of Playoffs that are so popular in other American sports has proven a tricky business for golf.
And there are plenty of fans and punters convinced that the current staggered start formula is wholly unacceptable.
The negative of a system that takes into account seasonal and playoff performance is that the best/hottest players are exactly the ones who don’t need strokes on their rivals.
This year, Scottie Scheffler starts out in front at -10. Good luck to those beginning the event at even par in their bid to catch him.
-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Patrick Cantlay
-7 Will Zalatoris
-6 Xander Schauffele
-5 Sam Burns
-4 Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im
-3 Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick
-2 Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland
-1 Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman
E KH Lee, JT Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron Wise
In reality, it would be a big surprise if the champion came from more than six back and that’s reflected in the winner market: 5/2 Scheffler, 4/1 Cantlay, 8/1 Schauffele, 12/1 Zalatoris, McIlroy, 16/1 bar.
Punters at least have a section option with many bookies offering a ‘who will shoot the lowest 72-hole score’ market.
That was shared by Jon Rahm and Kevin Na last year and they’d started at -6 and -2 respectively.
The course, East Lake, is a tough par 70 measuring up to 7,400 yards from the tips. It features Zoysia fairways and Bermuda greens, the same recipe as TPC Southwind which staged the recent St Jude Championship.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Poll a bunch of players about East Lake and most will talk about the importance of driving well. It shows up in the stats and three of the last six winners actually topped this category. Once more it was important in 2021.
2/ East Lake form
The odd debutant has popped up but in general winners or podium finishers in this event had made their mark at East Lake already. Plenty had posted at least a top three previously.
3/ Correlating course form
Two other courses stand out here. TPC Southwind, as mentioned, has the same mix of grasses while Sedgefield, like East Lake, is a Donald Ross design. Looking at last year’s two lowest 72-hole scorers, Na had form of second and fourth in his two previous Sedgefield starts while Rahm owns a fifth and a seventh at TPC Southwind.
4/ Current form
Patrick Cantlay, who started as the leader on -10 last year, duly won the FedEx Cup and had come into the event in sparkling form having won the BMW the week before. That added to an already strong trend.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Xander Schauffele
Few players in men’s golf have enjoyed a better summer than Schauffele and he added to wins in June’s Travelers Championship and July’s Scottish Open with a third at last week’s BMW Championship. Add to that he’s a course specialist, winning this event in 2017 and shooting the lowest 72-hole number in 2021. He’s also been second and third. Schauffele starts the tournament in fourth place, four behind Scheffler, so is one of the few with a realistic chance of hauling the leader in.
Adam Scott
The Aussie is a former winner at East Lake, was fifth on his most recent appearance and has notable form on correlating courses: runner-up at Sedgefield in 2021 and three top 10s in five starts at St Jude, the latest earlier this month. His current SG: Off The Tee numbers are strong and he arrives on the back of a pair of top fives.
Sungjae Im
Im was the halfway leader here in 2020 and posted a third top 10 in four starts at Sedgefield when runner-up there in the recent Wyndham Championship. He ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. At six back, he doesn’t really appeal in the main market but is very capable of shooting the week’s low score.
Tips 1-2; +0.75pts
1.5pts Xander Schauffele at 8/1 to win the FedEx Cup (Sky Bet, Betfred, Boylesports) 4th
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 33/1 in Low 72-hole market at (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 24th
1.25pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 22/1 in Low 72-hole market (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 2nd
