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Thursday’s first round can’t really come round quick enough given the fraught state of the world of golf at the moment. We need the calm of the golf and not the ruinous politics. Brooks Koepka plays this week at the Travelers Championship, but in aligning himself with LIV Golf he won’t be on the PGA Tour for long. And he is not alone – Abraham Ancer has gone too and more will follow. Behind the scenes there are those readied for the fight ahead; others are worried and considering their options. It’s worth wondering what the future holds. LIV’s first thoughts were of 16 events, that came down to eight and is already being mooted as being back up to 14. Add in the four majors and notions of circuits working together quickly seems pie in the sky. If all the world’s elite players competed on LIV, the PGA Tour would see little of them even if they were not banned. That matters if you like the consistency of the PGA Tour schedule for betting purposes. Consider TPC River Highlands this week: it’s been used since 1984, we know it inside out, we know the kind of players it suits, we know Bubba Watson loves it. What future would the Travelers have (and other events of its stature) and what impact would LIV have on punters? It’s not been the prime concern of many so far but it's worth bearing in mind. Anyhow, while we can, let’s consider this week’s test. It’s a Pete Dye design, plays just below 6,900 yards, with a par of 70 and bent grass small-ish greens. Chris Stroud said of the test: “This course is great for me. I'm not a bomber, so it's nice to be able to have a lot of short irons into the greens. I even have a note in my yardage book, as long as I'm sharp from 100 yards to 165 this week, I can make a lot of birdies.” But Rory McIlroy added warily: “You feel like you have wedge in hand every hole, but if you don’t put yourself in position it can be tricky. You need to be accurate and not super aggressive. Reign it in, know there’s plenty of opportunities, stay patient.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green These are the rankings for the last seven winners: third, sixth, first, second, first, fifth, sixth. That’s 7-for-7 in the top six. Five of the seven somewhat flagged up their good form in that part of their game by ranking top 20 in their previous start (one of the exception was ninth in his previous cut made). 2/ Par 4s The par is 70 and there are four par-5s and two par-5s so the mid-holes dominate. They are also mostly not long (just two above 460 yards). Recall the words of Stroud and McIlroy: lots of short irons. It helps explains the astonishing fact that before last year seven winners in a row ranked first on the par-4s. And last year? Harris English ranked sixth but the man he beat in an eight hole play-off? Kramer Hickok ranked first. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas A superb winner of the PGA Championship and also very impressive when third in the Canadian Open two starts ago. T37th last week at the US Open. He’s got an oddly flat course record but he did card a 62 when third in 2016. He must come back to the event for a reason and the high number of short iron approaches really should suit him. The numbers like him. He ranks first for Par-4s this season and third for SG Tee to Green. He’s also fourth for Par-4s in the 400-450 range which is most of what he will see this week. Mito Pereira Can he breakthrough this week? There’s lots in his favour. Has nine top 30s in his 11 completed starts, a run that includes nearly winning the PGA Championship, seventh at Colonial and T13th in the Memorial. He’s sixth on the Par-4s this season, 12th for SG Tee to Green and first in that 400-450 range of Par-4s. A tournament debutant because he was still on the second tier last year, winning twice in June to bound up a level. Marc Leishman The Aussie has a strong course record, with a win in 2012, a halfway lead ahead of ninth in 2016, third last year and just one missed cut in 11 starts. After a solid start to the season he hit a bit of a funk, but T14th in last week’s US Open was a good sign and he made over five strokes Tee to Green, his best effort since Torrey Pines in January.
Tips: 0-2; -4.00pts 2pt win Justin Thomas at 12/1 (General) dns 1pt e.w. Mito Pereira at 50/1 (Unibet, SpreadEx 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 50/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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