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The Valspar Championship is a little different to what has gone before on this year’s Florida Swing because after three weeks of quite brutal golf it should prove something of a respite. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort is also a little more nuanced than many Florida resort tracks. It’s tree-lined and undulating, and tight enough to allow all the field to have a shot at the win. The field is rarely the highest quality (the world’s best tend to take this week off with so much happening before and after), but big hitters are often put off too. That’s perhaps revealed in something caddie Ted Scott once said to Bubba Watson: “To play good round here you’re going to have to play boring golf.” Why is that? First up, the small greens are best attacked from the fairways so Henrik Stenson has noted that “you position yourself from the tee a lot”. He added: “Quite a few 2-irons and 4-woods, 3-woods off the tee and little bit longer irons into the greens which are pretty small and kind of sits at an angle towards you quite a lot so you want to try to keep it underneath the hole because I can only imagine the kind of quick putts you can get if you end up in the wrong place or chipping from the wrong place.” Two-time winner Paul Casey has said: “There’s a premium on ball striking” It’s also worth recalling that the layout has something of an odd set up with four par-5s and five par-3s. The total yardage is 7,340 yards with Bermuda grass on the greens. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green The last six winners (Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Hadwin, Paul Casey twice and Sam Burns) all ranked top six in the category that combines Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Greens. 2/ Putting This is a somewhat interesting one. The more sophisticated SG Putting doesn’t really show up too much but old fashioned Putting Average does. It might be that with the small greens, when players get a look a birdie they need to make good use of those chances. Six of the last seven winners were seventh or better in PA. 3/ The Par-5s There maybe more short holes than normal, but it seems pretty clear that what happens here is that the par-3s and par-4s are what need to be played in Watson’s “boring” style and then the foot needs to hit the accelerator on the long holes. Six of the last seven winners ranked top three. 4/ Undulations Four golfers have completed the Deere Run/Copperhead double and Bryson DeChambeau has also done it if you count an amateur win here. Another three golfers have won both here and at Augusta National, with plenty of winners here (KJ Choi, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk for example) having excellent Masters records.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Viktor Hovland The Norwegian and Collin Morikawa are both excellent in all three important stats, but Hovland gets the call with better form and also some course knowledge. He’s top five for the Par-5s this season, top 20 for Putting Average and top 30 for Tee to Green. He’s been top 10 in five of his last six starts and a winner in three of his last nine. He was third on course debut last year. Gary Woodland He’s proved himself on the course with a victory on debut in 2011 and he rubber-stamped that elevation changes don’t faze him when winning the US Open at Pebble Beach. His seasonal SG tee to Green and Par-5 stats are solid rather than excellent, but were better when he finished fifth in the two starts ahead of his missed cut at Sawgrass. Having the last 36 holes off last week might be no bad thing. Keegan Bradley He’s been solid on the long holes in recent weeks, was second for SG Tee to Green last week and he makes for an intriguing prospect in two ways. Firstly he played well last year, leading through 54 holes before Sam Burns passed him late on Sunday. Then he landed an unlucky two shot penalty last week on Friday (wind blowing his ball on the green) and that cost him. Redemption time? Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pt win Viktor Hovland at 11/1 (William Hill, Bet365) 33rd 1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 60/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 21st 1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 50/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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