Preview & Tips

And so, to the Tour Championship at East Lake and the fifth edition of the tournament in its “starting strokes” guise.

When first revealed the new-fangled idea prompted many baffled (and indignant) questions - and they have not really been put to bed.

The idea is that performance throughout the year, and especially in the play offs which precede this week, are rewarded by a handicap.

In essence the best players get a head start and those below them can only triumph by doing something spectacular.

But the jeopardy of sport is somewhat removed.

In trying to reward the best player in the field this year – Scottie Scheffler – the event sort of hopes he makes a mess of the week. Otherwise there’s no drama.

There’s undoubtedly a theory behind this idea, it’s just a little muddled in reality.

East Lake is a Donald Ross design and, while longer than Sedgefield (home of the Wyndham Championship), links between players who thrive at both have emerged. Detroit GC is another of his layouts.

What do the players make of the test? Patrick Cantlay has said: “Driving the ball in the fairway there is very important with the Bermuda rough. In the past we've had it firm, so that highlights putting the ball in the fairway even a little more. Staying below the hole there is very important, too. The greens have lots of pitch, usually back to front, and they are very fast, so as many uphill putts as you can get, then you really have some chances of making some.”

Gary Woodland agreed, saying: “You've got to drive the ball in the fairway here. The rough is so brutal, and the greens are so fast, it turns into a ball striker's paradise. If you drive it in play, you've got to find a way to keep the ball below the hole.”

It’s a par 70 at 7,346 yards with Bermuda grass on the greens as well as in the rough.

The scores on the doors:

-10 Scottie Scheffler

-8 Viktor Hovland

-7 Rory McIlroy

-6 Jon Rahm

-5 Lucas Glover

-4 Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick

-3 Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele

-2 Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim

-1 Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day

Evs Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka 

Angles to consider

1/ Donald Ross

In addition to Sedgefield and Detroit, Oak Hill – host of this year’s PGA Championship – is a Ross layout.

2/ Hitting fairways

The numbers tell us that players hit 80% of greens from the fairway but 50% from the rough. In the five year pre-event trends ranking top 10 in the field for this week is the most significant statistical factor at 21%.

3/ The grass combination

Bermuda on the green and in the rough plus Zoysia on the fairways is very like TPC Southwind which was used just two weeks ago for the first Playoff event. Last year only two men finished top 10 in both but Sepp Straka did lose a play-off at Southwind before being something of a surprise top 6 low-scorer at East Lake.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

* Note: all three picks are in the low-scorer in 72 hole market

Tom Kim

Last year he was seventh at Detroit and a winner at Sedgefield. He missed out on a defence of that title because of injury. Before it he was sixth in the Scottish Open and second in the Open. After he was second at halfway in the St Jude (finishing 24th) and 10th last when closing 66-63. He ranks fifth in the field for Green in Regulation.

Russell Henley

His recent visits to Ross designs have been superb: five of his last six being top 10s (at Detroit and Sedgefield). He’s plated East Lake twice when 12th in 2014 and third in 2017. He hails from Georgia and he ranks 10th for GIR in the field. He was sixth at TPC Southwind.

Lucas Glover

The books feel the wave is ridden. But he ranks sixth for GIR, he won at TPC Southwind (and Sedgefield, and he was fourth at Detroit) and he has five top six finishes in his last seven starts.

Tips:  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Tom Kim at 30/1 (BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)  17th

1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 28/1 (William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)  13th

1pt e.w. Lucas Glover at 45/1 (William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)  20th