It can’t be like Royal Troon every week and that statement is brought into sharp focus as the PGA Tour leaves behind a memorable fortnight in Scotland and presents us with the low-key 3M Open.
It may not be the most eye-catching name, tournament or course but tell that to Lee Hodges who secured a first PGA Tour title at the Minnesota venue last year when running away from the field by seven shots.
His total of 24-under was a 72-hole record while the previous four editions of this relatively new tournament were won with scores from 15-under to 21-under.
All five runnings were won by American golfers and one of those, Tony Finau, is slotted in as the clear favourite around 11/1 this week.
TPC Twin Cities, a 7,421-yard par 71 featuring bentgrass greens, probably needs weather to defend itself.
The current forecast shows sunny conditions, peaking at 90 degrees on Sunday but there’s also the chance of thunderstorms in that final round. Wind speeds show highs of 10-14mph.
Finau could be hard to beat despite missing the Open cut and it will be interesting to see how the next two in the betting - Sam Burns and Billy Horschel - fare given that they were in final-round contention at Troon.
While in itself this looks a very modest offering, let’s note that it’s the penultimate event of the FedExCup’s regular season while qualifying for September’s Presidents Cup offers another incentive.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
TTG has been the most reliable way to success in the five 3M Opens so far. Three of those champions actually finished 1st in this category - Hodges last year, Finau in 2022 and Matthew Wolff in the inaugural 2019 edition.
2/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Within the Tee To Green metric, Approach stands out. Hodges was 1st, Finau 3rd, Michael Thompson 4th when winning in 2020 and Wolff 2nd.
3/ Par Breakers
Lee Hodges racked up a tournament-high 25 birdies and two eagles on the way to victory last year so plenty of circles on the scorecard are needed.Getting to 20 or more birdies is almost a necessity to secure a top-five finish.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Cam Davis
The Aussie has finished in the top five for SG: Tee To Green in his last two events. The first paved the way for victory in the Rocket Mortgage Classic which correlates well with this tournament and the second helped him finish 26th in an elite field at the Scottish Open. His course form over the last four years of 10-16-28-12 adds further encouragement as does Davis ranking tied 1st for Birdies (23 of them) when winning the Rocket Mortgage.
Tom Hoge
The former Pebble Beach winner ranks 6th for Par Breakers this season so it’s no surprise to look at his course form and find a fourth in 2022 and top 25s in 2019 and 2023. He found the going tough in Scotland but his last start on home American soil resulted in third place at the Travelers where he ranked 1st for Approach and 3rd Tee To Green.
Tony Finau
Finau has a good recent record of being the big fish in a small pond as shown by his victory here in 2022 and also the Rocket Mortgage Classic a week after. Also third and seventh in this event, he ranks 3rd for Approach this season, 6th for Tee To Green and 14th in Par Breakers. He’s the one to beat and any price in double figures is worth a go for a player who has five PGA Tours wins sincec August 2021 having previously struggled to get over the line.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Cam Davis at 30/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/6 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 19th
1pt e.w. win Tom Hoge at 30/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/6 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
