Arnold Palmer’s PGA Tour stop at Bay Hill is one of the early highlights of each season and this year its importance goes up another notch.
Arnie’s event has been given Signature Series status so the reduced 69-man field are fighting it out for a cool $20m of which the winner gets $4m.
This is the place where Tiger Woods won a record eight times although he doesn’t make it into the field this time.
But there are some notable former champions taking part, including the front two in the betting: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.
Bay Hill in Orlando is a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards. It’s hosted every edition since 1979.
Three times in the last four years there’s been a winning score of single digits under par so despite it being a fairly flat layout, it can be seriously challenging.
Water is in play on half the holes and the fast-running greens are hard to hit.
Interviewed on Tuesday, Will Zalatoris explained: “It’s just hard and it just gets harder. As the week goes on it’s borderline. By Sunday, it’s major championship toughness. Just get out of there with pars.
“By Sunday, everyone’s kind of joking about how Arnie’s smiling from heaven watching the carnage.”
The weather looks to be helping that narrative. It’s calm on Thursday but the winds pick up to around 15mph (gusting above 20mph) on Saturday and Sunday.
Angles to consider
1/ Course form
Tiger’s eight wins could be a rule unto themselves but others have enjoyed repeated success here. Lesser lights Loren Roberts and Matt Every won back-to-back while in more recent years Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman and Tyrrell Hatton have both a win and a second place at Bay Hill. Nine of the last 12 winners had previously posted a top five in this event.
2/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Scheffler ranked 1st in this category when winning in 2022 while Hatton was 2nd in his 2020 win. In 2021, the top three were ranked 9th, 3rd and 1st for SGA. With weather conditions getting tougher as the tournament goes on, the emphasis on ball-striking will only increase on the weekend so expect the elite iron players to come to the fore.
3/ Bogey Avoidance
As is often the case on tough courses, avoiding bogeys is a huge key. Last year’s top two, Kurt Kitayama and Harris English, made the fewest errors (five and four bogeys respectively) and Bryson DeChambeau was joint 1st for Bogey Avoidance in his 2021 victory.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Adam Scott
The Aussie fits the bill nicely here. He has two top threes at Bay Hill and is in great form for his latest crack at Arnie’s event after accumulating five top 10s and a further two top 20s in his last seven starts. As for relevant stats, Scott is 6th for SG: Approach this season and 26th for Bogey Avoidance. He looks ready for this tough test.
Sam Burns
Burns, twice a winner in Florida, was ninth at Bay Hill two years ago. He’s enjoying an excellent campaign with four straight top 10s coming in and that includes third place in Phoenix. He ranks 1st for Bogey Avoidance so far this season and all parts of his game look in strong working order.
Kurt Kitayama
If Roberts and Every can do it, maybe Kitayama can follow in their footsteps and make a surprise successful defence after his victory here last year. An eighth in Phoenix and five finishes of 39th or better this term show he’s in good nick. Encouragingly, he’s also 10th for Bogey Avoidance and 20th for SG: Approach.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
1.25pts e.w. Sam Burns at 20/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 30th
0.75pts e.w. Kurt Kitayama at 66/1 (Hills, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
