The Byron Nelson is a well-known stop on the PGA Tour although adding CJ Cup in the name creates a little doubt as to whether this is the usual event in Dallas.
Don’t worry, it is, although punters don’t exactly have a raft of course form as the Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Craig Ranch has only been used for three years.
With winning scores in that time of -25, -26 and -23, we’re back to another of the PGA Tour’s birdie-fests which some viewers enjoy while others will rather roll their eyes.
KH Lee won the first two editions at this venue at big prices which suggests this is wide open. Note though that the two runners-up were members of the USA’s most recent Ryder Cup team - Sam Burns and local man Jordan Spieth.
Last year, a major winner lifted the trophy as Aussie Jason Day ended a five-year win drought by seeing off Si-Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat by a single shot.
Spieth returns but he’s the only player from the top 20 in the world rankings taking part so this is officially one of the weaker fields of the season despite some obviously quality in the upper ranks of the betting.
Perhaps Spieth can put this right but one unusual stat is that no Texan has ever won the Byron Nelson.
Spieth said last year: “If you’re in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of greens, but if you’re not you’re really out of position because they stick ‘em over in corners and the way the course is designed you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin.”
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Approach
In the three years at TPC Craig Ranch, the winner has ranked 2nd, 8th and 3rd for Strokes Gained: Approach. Strong iron play sets up birdie chances and that’s the deal at this venue. Talking of which…
2/ Par Breakers
Look at those winning scores! Even when par was changed to 71 last year, -23 was still needed by Jason Day to get over the line. Birdies at a rapid rate are needed and there are good eagle opportunities too so this looks a good stat to peruse.
3/ Texas Form
The last two winners of the Byron Nelson had previously won a PGA Tour event in Texas. KH Lee was taking the title here for the second year running while Jason Day had previously won this tournament at a different venue. As for runners-up, Jordan Spieth is also a past winner in the Lone Star State while Sam Burns has since become one when capturing the 2023 Match Play in Austin.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Adam Scott
The Aussie is an absolute specialist in Texas and has won four times there. He’s played this course twice, finishing 32nd and eighth (shot 63s on days one and four). Scott’s Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have taken a real uptick in the last few months and he was ninth in that category when 22nd at The Masters on his latest start. That followed on from 14th at the Texas Open.
Stephan Jaeger
Jaeger was a winner in Texas at the end of March when capturing the Houston Open. He’d finished ninth and 11th (at this course) in two of his previous three starts in the Lone Star state so the German enjoys his trips to the south. Jaeger is 23rd in Par Breakers this season which also bodes well and 18th at the RBC Heritage last time shows he’s still in good form.
Mark Hubbard
Hubbard looks a good fit for this. He’s 24th in SG: Approach this season and 18th in Par Breakers. He’s made every cut in 2024 and has some momentum after a third in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans pairs tournament last week. While not a winner in Texas, he’s a former runner-up in the Houston Open, was ninth at Colonial last year and has twice shot rounds of 65 in his two starts at this venue.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.25pts e.w. Adam Scott at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 30th
1pt e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 30/1 (William Hill, 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th
0.75pts e.w. Lucas Mark Hubbard at 66/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 52nd
