It’s very common at elite-level golf to hear players talking about how much they prefer it when par means something.
At this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at famed Torrey Pines in California, they get their wish.
Jason Day won with this with 10-under in 2018, Patrick Reed was the only player to shoot double digits under par when taking victory in 2021 and Max Homa fired 13-under to win by two last year.
Compare that to the start of this season with two of the first three events birdie-fests won with 29-under - Chris Kirk in The Sentry and amateur Nick Dunlap at The American Express.
The field get some respite when playing the easier North Course over one of the first two days.
But three rounds, including the final 36 holes, at Torrey Pines South - a par 72 measuring over 7,750 yards - will really sort the wheat from the chaff.
The scoring average there last year was over 73.5 which makes it, on average, at least a couple of shots harder than the North.
At least the weather looks set to behave so TV viewers will get some beautiful shots of the coastline.
The greens are Bentgrass-Poa annua and can get bumpy. Tiger Woods certainly worked them out, winning this event seven times and famously capturing the 2008 US Open here on one leg.
John Rahm also won a US Open here (2021) and would surely have been favourite but his move to LIV rules him out.
That leaves Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa as the clear front four in the betting.
Angles to consider
1/ Torrey Pines form
As mentioned, Tiger kept winning here while Rahm also won this event four years before lifting the US Open trophy on these grounds. Brandt Snedeker and Jason Day are dual winners while Marc Leishman has a first and two seconds. The last two Torrey champions, Max Homa and Luke List, had enjoyed previous top 10s at this event.
2/ SG: Approach
Elite iron play has always been a big factor here and it played out again last year. Winner Homa ranked 1st for SG: Approach, runner-up Keegan Bradley 10th, third-placed Collin Morikawa 3rd and fourth-placed Sungjae Im 2nd. Adding to that, three of the previous four champions ranked in the top five for SG: Approach.
3/ All-Around
As with many courses that have staged US Opens, doing everything well is important. These are the All-Around rankings of the last 10 Farmers winners: 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 5th, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 3rd and 6th. Both Woods and Rahm were 1st for AA when winning their US Opens here.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Keegan Bradley
Bradley looks a great fit this week. He was 3rd for All-Around when runner-up at the Sony Open last time and ranked 9th and 11th for Strokes Gained: Approach in the two Hawaii events earlier this month. And then there’s course form. Bradley was second here last year and that added to a pair of top fives in 2017 and 2018.
Sahith Theegala
A local Californian, Theegala was 1st for All-Around and 14th for SG: Approach when second at The Sentry on his 2024 debut three weeks ago. We can forgive him a missed cut at the Sony (R2 67) and instead focus on two good performances out of two in this event - a tied 25th on debut in 2022 and tied fourth last year when he was 4th for All-Around.
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris was 1st on the season-long SG: Approach charts in 2022 and that ability has helped him rack up a series of big finishes in the majors. After missing much of 2023 following surgery, he’s getting sharper by the week and was 34th at The American Express last week. A big fan of this property, he’s had a second and a seventh in two of the last three editions and he could figure again although it may make sense to take a slightly lower price and get the 10 each-way places.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 28/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 43rd
1pt e.w. Sahith Theegala at 30/1 (Bet365 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 64th
1pt e.w. Will Zalatoris at 40/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 13th
