TPC Deere Run now occupies the slot two weeks before the Open Championship although its place on the calendar still hurts the field quality.
The next fortnight on the PGA Tour schedule is the co-sanctioned Scottish Open in North Berwick and the Open itself at Royal Troon.
And with that in mind, most of the leading lights are skipping this annual PGA Tour stop in Illinois.
It means the top two in the betting are Sungjae Im at 14s and defending champion Sepp Straka at 16s.
That highlights their good form in comparison to that of two-time John Deere winner Jordan Spieth, who returns to the event for the first time since 2015 on the back of results showing just one top 25 in his last 13 starts.
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 measuring just under 7,300 yards. Scoring needs to be low with 21-under the magic number in three of the last four editions while 18-under has been the highest winning total since 2008.
A look down the list of winners is instructive. Steve Stricker is a three-time champion (2009-2011) and his recipe of keeping it in play, hitting approaches close and holing lots of putts proved a winning formula that others have emulated in more recent years.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Putting
It’s been the standout stat when looking at Strokes Gained numbers over the last decade. Sepp Straka continued the tradition last year when ranking 4th for SG: Putting
2/ Scrambling
Getting up and down when missing the greens is another big key here. Five of the last six champions ranked in the top five for Scrambling when winning. Two of those were 1st, including 2019 winner Dylan Frittelli who had a remarkable up-and-down success rate of 93.8%.
3/ Par 4s
It’s sometimes par 70s where Par 4 scoring stands out but it does too here on this par 71. Straka ranked 2nd in this category last year while the previous four champions were all first/tied first. There aren’t too many long par 4s so there are numerous opportunities to cash in.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Denny McCarthy
McCarthy has finished sixth here for the last two years, starting the final round on both occasions in second place. He played the par 4s in 14-under last year, three better than anyone else, and sits 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting on the season-long charts. Scrambling? Yep, he ticks that box too, ranking 6th.
J.T. Poston
Poston was the 2022 winner here and very much fits the profile of a John Deere winner in the Stricker mould. He’s 10th for Driving Accuracy, 50th for Putting and 55th for Par 4 Scoring. Poston followed up his win by finishing sixth when defending last year and looks close to a big week after showing up well at Colonial (12th) and Memorial (22nd) while playing solidly at the US Open (32nd).
Mark Hubbard
Hubbard is a straight hitter who putts well as shown by current rankings of 36th in Driving Accuracy and 45th in SG: Putting. He showed up strongly for a while in the US Open and the theory that this course should suit is backed up by some good evidence. He was 24th on debut, 13th in 2022 and sixth last year.
Tips 1-2; -1.20pts
1.4pts e.w. Denny McCarthy at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/6 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 7th
1pt e.w. J.T. Poston at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 30th
