Before the PGA Tour heads from West to East, it crosses the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
While Mexico has been a regular stop on the schedule, this is just the third edition of the event at the top level.
That leaves punters relatively little course form to go on although some clues were left in the 2022 and 2023 runnings.
Jon Rahm captured the first with 17-under while last year Tony Finau, who had finished in a three-way tie for second behind the Spaniard in 2022, went one better and lifted the trophy by firing 24-under to win by three.
A field of 132 tackles the Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta. It’s a par 71 with five par 3s and measures 7,456 yards from the tips.
There are plenty of bunkers but fairways are wide and greens are big, flat and slightly slower than average.
Patrick Reed said in 2022: “It’s so pure. You get to the driving range and it looks like a carpet and you go onto the golf course and it’s identical. It’s in amazing shape.
“You have to work the ball both ways. There’s some pretty wide fairways out there but you still have to hit a quality golf shot because, even though they’re wide, you have to play from certain angles into these greens.”
Most players agree that wind is the course’s biggest defence but the forecast shows calm conditions all week so expect scoring to be low.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Wide fairways suggest players can just blast away but Reed’s comments hint at something more refined. And driving is clearly important given that the two winners - Finau and Rahm - both finished 2nd for SG: Off The Tee. The other podium finishers in 2022 and 2023 also ranked highly in this category.
2/ Form on Paspalum
Finau had a previous win on Paspalum, as did Kurt Kitayama, one of the runners-up here in 2022. It’s a grass type that certain players thrive on. Viktor Hovland has three wins on it, two of those in Mexico.
3/ Birdie Average
With a very favourable forecast, players will have to go low again. The rough is a little longer than last year but don’t be surprised to see 20-under being broken once more. The top two birdie makers last year - Finau and Rahm - had more red circles than anyone else, racking up 27 and 26 respectively.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Thomas Detry
The Belgian has stepped it up on the PGA Tour this season, posting a fourth at Pebble Beach as well as 20th at Torrey Pines and 28th in Phoenix either side. He ranks 19th for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 6th for Birdie Average. On Paspalum, Detry has a bunch of good form (nine top 15s overall), including eighth at last year’s Corales Puntacana.
Ryan Fox
Fox ranked 31st for Off The Tee and 20th in Birdie Average on the DP World Tour last season and can use those skills to have a big week on his course debut. The Kiwi won the Ras al Khaimah Championship on Paspalum in 2022 and sitting sixth after 36 holes in Phoenix last time suggests September’s BMW PGA Championship winner is in shape to flourish at a venue that should suit.
Sami Valimaki
Valimaki won the Qatar Masters at the end of October and a pair of top-45 finishes at Torrey Pines and Phoenix (final-round 64) show he’s settling into life on the PGA Tour after winning his card. The Finn finished in the top 50 for both birdie makers and Off The Tee on the DP World Tour last season and in two of his last three appearances on Paspalum he won in Qatar and finished runner-up in the Singapore Classic.
Tips 1-2; +6.75pts
1.25pts e.w. Thomas Detry at 25/1 (888 Sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc
