We’re very much coming into the thick of majors season now with the PGA second up in the battle for the four big ones.
Valhalla in Kentucky plays host again which is good news for Rory McIlroy given that he won the 2014 edition there by a shot from Phil Mickelson.
That was in the era when PGAs were played in August so McIlroy will hope he can find more of that magic in May.
He’s certainly in the frame of mind to do so after another brilliant win at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.
McIlroy, who has gone 10 years without a major, is 15/2 while Scottie Scheffler, who won his second major a month ago, is 9/2. Scheffler arrives in Kentucky following the birth of his first baby last week.
Brooks Koepka is the current king of the PGA having lifted the hefty Wanamaker Trophy in three of the last six years.
Intriguingly, Koepka, Scheffler and McIlroy will all tee off this week having won on their latest starts.
The Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla, which opened in 1986, can be stretched over 7,600 yards which is a lot for a par 71 and some rain in the forecast could help the big hitters further.
Keith Reese, PGA general manager at Valhalla since 2013, says of the layout which features Bentgrass greens: “I think the golf course is a good test of golf, but it’s a fair test of golf.
“It’s a golf course that has some scoring opportunities but it also has areas that can jump up and bite you if you’re not careful.
“The last six holes, I think, are fantastic, just a great finishing stretch with some short holes and some long holes.”
Rory won with 16-under in 2014 while Tiger Woods took the title in 2000 after firing 18-under and beating Bob May in a dramatic playoff.
But the two Senior PGA Championships at Valhalla were won with 8-under.
Tom Watson and Hale Irwin were the respective winners of those in 2004 and 2011. As Reese adds: “We’ve had some really exciting finishes and a really great list of champions."
Angles to consider
1/ Driving Distance
Rory ranked 1st for Driving Distance when winning here in 2014 while Tiger Woods also topped that category in his 2000 triumph. Typically, PGA Championship venues suit the big hitters and Valhalla falls very much into that category. Brooks Koepka further highlights the point as he ranked 2nd, 10th and 5th for DD in his three PGA wins.
2/ Current form
PGA venues generally play tough as shown by four of the last five being won with single digits under par. So form coming in needs to be strong. It’s shown by 11 of the last 13 PGA winners posting a top 20 on their previous start. Note that seven of the 11 actually came in on the back of a top five.
3/ Majors Form
Koepka had just finished joint runner-up in the Masters when he won his PGAs in 2018 and 2023. In 2017, when the PGA was played in August, he’d won the US Open two months earlier. That highlights a strong trend that PGA winners had marked our cards with a strong major recent major performance. In other words, check the leaderboards of last month’s Masters and last summer’s Open Championship.
4/ Form on Jack Nicklaus layouts
Jack’s designs offer room off the tee and put emphasis on the approach. Valhalla falls into that category so form on some of his other layouts such as Muirfield Village has relevance.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau ranks 1st on the LIV Golf Driving Distance charts and his average whack of 318.9 yards would put him top of the PGA Tour’s too. He showed recent major form by finishing sixth at the US Masters and has two top fours in his last three PGAs. Also a former winner at Nicklaus’s Muirfield Village, he ticks plenty of the right boxes.
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa certainly qualifies as a specialist on Nicklaus courses as he’s won on three of them - Montreux, Muirfield Village and The Concession. The 2020 PGA champion and winner of the 2021 Open, his reputation as a majors specialist was enhanced further by tied third at last month’s Masters. He’s not the biggest hitter but can perform strongly on long courses.
Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood has become a regular on majors leaderboards and comes in off his best ever finish at Augusta: tied third. That was his third straight top 10 in a major while he also made the top five twice at this level in 2022. He kept his form ticking over with a top 15 at Quail Hollow last week, averaging 305.2 yards from the tee.
Tips 2-1; +7.20pts
1pt e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 28/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 2nd
1pt e.w. Collin Morikawa at 28/1 (bet365, Skybet, Will Hill, Boylesports, 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 4th
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 26th
