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Just 12 months ago Golf Digest wrote that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was struggling “with weak fields – so where does the tournament go from here?” It seemed a poor state of affairs for an event that is 87 years old, has a strong tradition and is hosted by a course that is known and admired throughout the world. But in the modern golf schedule it was an easy week for elite golfers to miss – especially those who found the amateur and celebrity aspect irking. Spin it forward 12 months and it is now part of the signature series of PGA Tour events. Indeed, the TV commentary team were cooing at the conclusion of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open that Pebble “is about to host its best professional field yet”. The top 50 in last year’s FedEx Cup all compete, so do the top 10 in the Fall standings, the top five earners in the first three regular events of 2024 and the newly professional winner of The American Express Nick Dunlap. Tournament director Steve John explains: “We’ve gone from 156 two-person teams (pro and amateur) to 80 two-person teams and we’ll play two courses instead of three.” Monterey Peninsula has been removed from the format, with Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach hosting a pre-cut round apiece ahead of the final 36 holes taking place at Pebble. There are two potential implications for this week. The first is that the extra round at Pebble Beach might make US Open form there, and final round form in this event in the past, more relevant – but that’s also debatable. Th other thought is about the pro-am format. Gary Woodland has always said of it: “A lot of this week is mental too. You’re playing with amateurs, they’re long rounds, it’s a mental grind. So I think you have to be prepared for that and be mentally prepared for it.” A lot of mentals in there. Now consider that many playing this week would normally have dodged this tournament because that mental issue irritated them. Now they have no option but to play. Some might find they don’t hate it as much as they thought, others might have there previous ideas confirmed and play like a bear with a sore head. The first four winners on the PGA Tour have all been three figure prices at the start of the week – and big ones in three cases. Will that continue? Let’s see.
Angles to consider 1/ Wide fairways / small greens The host courses have always made this a feature and it remains so because it typifies Pebble. Also consider that the usually soft fairways make them, in reality, wider – they’re hard to miss. Approach shots to those small targets matter therefore. 2/ Poa Annua As with Torrey Pines, Silverado and Riviera, the Poa on the green can cause problems late in the day. It’s more about golfers who lose patience with this and those who remain relatively phlegmatic. And, similar to the thought above, some will have dodged this week because of the greens and might be none too pleased to have to face up to them. Form on those courses mentioned above is often a fine guide. 3/ Seaside location Potentially cold, misty mornings, blustery winds, changeable winds, slow greens, great views. Again, some golfers thrive, others wilt. 4/ Par 4 Scoring Ahead of the last two winners (Tom Hoge and Justin Rose) seven of the last eight winners has ranked top two o the par-4s.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jordan Spieth Last seen finishing a fine third at The Sentry he now gets to play one of his favourite events. He won it in 2017 and has also been fourth, third and second – the latter two coming in his last three starts and he was ninth before that. He is definitely happy to be here this week. He’s also a two-time top 10 finisher at Riviera. Matt Fitzpatrick He missed the cut at the Sony Open but that has pushed his price into a nice realm. He was T14th before that at The Sentry (which was undulating and by the sea like this week). He also won the Dunhill Links last autumn so his pro-am form is fine. Indeed, he was sixth in this event in 2022. And T12th at the 2019 US Open on the course. He’s also been fifth at Riviera and won last year on the small greens of Harbour Town. Sahith Theegala Players who played Silverado well in the autumn before this event have a tidy record and Theegala can join them. Last year he was also fourth at Torrey Pines and sixth at Riviera. He’s only played this event once but that opens him up to a nice price. He was recently second at Plantation.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 20/1 (SkybetUnibet, BetUk, BetMGM 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 39th 1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 40/1 (Unibet, BetUk, BetMGM 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 58th 1pt e.w. Sahith Theegala at 66/1 (BF Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 20th
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