The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am again showed it was vulnerable to bad weather after suffering a final-round cancellation last week.
Sad for some but joy for those holding pre-tournament wagers on Wyndham Clark at 70/1 and more as the US Open champion was declared the winner after sitting on top of the pile when the tournament was called off early after 54 holes.
Thankfully, good conditions are virtually guaranteed in the Arizona desert so Sunday’s champion will have played 72 holes and most probably shot something from 14-under to 19-under as that’s been the winning score here for the last decade.
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that has yielded rounds of 60 in the past although that course record set by Phil Mickelson, Mark Calcavecchia and Grant Waite hasn’t been equalled or bettered since 2013.
The Jay Morris/Tom Weiskopf design has been the playground for Scottie Scheffler in the last two years. He made it the scene of his first PGA Tour win in 2022 and defended in 2023.
An annual stop on the PGA Tour since 1987, its most famous hole is one of the most iconic in golf: the par-3 16th where thousands of beer-fuelled fans gather to shout abuse and make side wagers on who will miss or make the green and make birdie or par.
The par-4 17th is perhaps more pivotal though. It can be driven but water lurks and that brings bogey into play.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
Putting was perhaps the key stat before the course was toughened up in 2015. But now, it’s what a player does before reaching the green that counts for most. The top four for SG: Tee To Green in 2023 all finished in the top six on the leaderboard last year to back up previous evidence.
2/ Course form
Five of the last six different names engraved on this trophy had either won it previously or finished runner-up. Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama and J.B. Holmes have all won it twice in the last 20 years. Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia are triple winners.
3/ Desert form
We’re in the desert so form from other desert events also translates well. That includes the recent American Express at La Quinta, last October’s Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas as well as the various DP World Tour events in the United Arab Emirates and other Middle East venues.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Byeong Hun An
The Korean looks to be close to the winner’s circle after a fourth and a second in the two Hawaii events. He ranked ninth and third respectively for SG: Tee To Green in those January tournaments and such efforts should set him up nicely here. An was sixth on debut in 2017 and ninth in 2020. Overall, he has four top 25s from his five appearances at TPC Scottsdale while go back to his DP World Tour days and he has a bunch of top finishes on the desert courses in the United Arab Emirates
Adam Hadwin
Hadwin, a Scottsdale resident, seems to be ticking all the boxes. The Canadian was 10th last year after holding the 36-hole lead and strong SG: Tee To Green play has helped fuel some fine recent finishes in other desert events. He was runner-up at the Shriners in Vegas and sixth in last month’s American Express at La Quinta.
Sahith Theegala
Theegala went desperately close to winning this event on debut in 2022, eventually finishing third after a late slip, and the course really suits. Runner-up at the season-opening Sentry in Hawaii where he ranked 8th for SG: Tee To Green, the American added a top 20 at Pebble Beach last week so looks primed for a big challenge.
Tips 1-2; +0.60pts
1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 28/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 66th
1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 45/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc
1pt e.w. Sahith Theegala at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 5th
