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If you thought Scottie Scheffler’s five-shot victory in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational sounded familiar it is perhaps because he won last year’s Players Championship by the exact same margin. He was supreme that week and supreme again just a few days ago, marrying a hot putter with the blistering long game we’ve come to expect as par for him. Is he now set for a spectacular season and, if so, will he roll straight on into Sawgrass and maintain the pace? The Stadium Course is a tough spot, one that offers danger for errant shots. Moreover it takes only a couple of minutes of brain fade for a week’s hopes to evaporate because it is designed with water as a huge threat. The field is not as strong as in recent times because of continued defections to LIV but this is still a pillar of the golf year and a week to savour. The course has been stretched ahead of this year to 7,275 yards playing to the usual par of 72 with TifEagle Bermuda grass on the greens. Wind can be a factor, as always in Florida, and it’s been a tough-ish test in recent times. In 2021 Justin Thomas won with 14-under, Cameron Smith succeeded him at 13-under and, while Scheffler triumphed shooting 17-under, runner-up Tyrrell Hatton was back in 12-under. Tiger Woods never much liked the course, grumbling that the water and the Dye-trademark fairway bunkers (which stretch down and then often across a fairway) limited the options from the tee too much, meaning everyone hit second shots from the same spots. “You have to drive the ball well,” past winner Sergio Garcia argued. “The fairways are not massive and the greens are not very big, so you have to be accurate with your irons.” Matt Fitzpatrick added of the first blows: “It’s just a demanding golf course in particular visually off the tee. Some of the fairways are actually wider than they look.” Patrick Cantlay insisted that: “It’s a course that favours precision, so if you can hit your driver in the fairway, you can have lots of scoring opportunities. You can take advantage of the par-5s if you play from the fairway.” Garcia made a good point: “If you are hitting greens you are having birdie chances (because of the small greens). You’re not like struggling from 50, 60, 70 feet like other courses we play where the greens are just huge.”
Angles to consider 1/ Pete Dye He’s a popular designer with tournaments but a bit more Marmite with the players. Some like his quirks, other don’t. 7 of the last 10 winners had already finished first on a Dye design, two of the others had multiple top 3 finishes and the exception (Si Woo Kim) has since gone on to win on another Dye design. 2/ Florida form 10 of the last 12 winners had finished in the top 20 on their previous Florida start. 8 of the last 10 winners had finished top three there in their career and all had a top 20. 3/ Strokes Gained Since the return to March in 2019, the four winners all ranked top 30 for SG Approach for the season heading into Sawgrass. All four had also ranked top 3 at least once in a previous start for the year in SG Tee to Green. These highlight the long game test and the importance of the second shot. 4/ Other courses Sedgefield has a long standing connection: five players have done the Sawgrass-Sedgefield double and another four Sedgefield winners finished top five at Sawgrass. Since 2019 (and the return to March) another elite gathering has been a pointer: all four winners contended at Plantation in The Sentry before lifting the trophy at Sawgrass. And going back to 1991 only seven winners were not major winners (before or after Sawgrass success).
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Scottie Scheffler Boring? Sometimes boring works. His SG stats are great. He’s won three of his last five starts in Florida. He’s not just won at Sawgrass – he also has a first, second and fourth at Dye’s Austin CC, third on the Stadium Course at PGA West, and fourth at River Highlands. He was the halfway leader at The Sentry. He’s also won in bunches before and he’d have won a hatful in the last 12 months with a half decent putter – and last week he had better than that. You could even add that the rest of the PGA Tour’s elite are not in great form. And the site’s simulations like him: check out the probabilities page. Xander Schauffele He is only ranked 40th for SG Approach this season but dropped 28 places last week for one sloppy performance and he ranked first for T2G at Torrey Pines and top five at Riviera and Plantation – he was also third heading into the final round at the latter. He was second at Sawgrass back in 2018 and in his last nine starts on Dye courses he has seven top five starts including two wins (Louisiana in the pairs event and River Highlands). He was T25th last week. Chris Kirk He was a winner this year at Plantation, he ranked first for SG T2G and Approach at Waialae, was good off the tee at PGA National and last week in Bay Hill. He’s got top five finishes on three different Dye tracks (Louisiana, Austin, PGA West) and is a two-time winner in Florida. He has three top 15 finishes at Sawgrass, was also third at halfway in 2021 and he was the one shot 54-hole leader in 2015.
Tips: 2-1; +18.90pts 3pt win Scottie Scheffler at 11/2 (General) 1st 1pt e.w. Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 2nd 0.5pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 100/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 26th
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