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The PGA Tour returns to Detroit GC for the sixth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and if history repeats itself there will be plenty of birdies. Nate Lashley won the inaugural event with a total of 25-under-par and Bryson DeChambeau was the second winner at 23-under. Sure, Cam Davis did triumph on 18-under but he was followed as a winner by Tony Finau on 26-under and Rickie Fowler last year on 24-under. In other words: a return to birdie-fest ways. The 7,370-yard par-72 is vulnerable to attacking golf and Lashley is the only champion who didn’t break 69 in every single round (but then he’d already carded a pair of 63s and had a six shot lead so could afford a final round 70 to seal the deal). As we’ll note below, there is something of a link with Silverado, host of the Safeway Open, which is another old design with a mix of Poa Annua and bent grass on the greens. In fact, Max Homa said of Detroit in 2022: “It’s an old-school track, got to drive it straight. You get a bunch of funky putts – it’s Poa Annua greens, which is home to me.” Homa is a two-time winner at Silverado and while he’s not quite fired at Detroit he is 4-for-4 at making the cut and has three top 30s in his last three starts. Ahead of the first renewal Bubba Watson said: “Off the tee it’s not too bad, but there are a lot of breaking putts. So it’s just going to be putting the ball in the right position after your tee shots.” DeChambeau noted: “There’s a lot of bunkers that are around like 290, so hopefully I’ll be able to clear those and take those out of play. So, sorry, Mr. Ross, but, you know, it is what it is.” Davis is another big hitter and so, too, Finau, but distance is not the only way to overpower this course.
Angles to consider 1/ Donald Ross First winner Lashley had never played a Ross design before but the other four had and all of them had a top 20 finish. Of the three players who have lost a play-off, two had a Ross top 20 and the third had a top 30. The recent US Open was on a Ross track, for what it’s worth. 2/ Strokes Gained Approach Four of the five winners had ranked top 12 for SG Approach in at least one of their previous three starts. Iron play needs to be smart. 3/ Silverado link All five winners had a top 20 at Silverado before their win at Detroit. As mentioned above, it’s another traditional design with a bent grass / poa annua mix on the greens. 4/ Poa Annua All five winners, and all three play-off losers too, had already finished third or better on greens with Poa Annua in them.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Stephan Jaeger Of the four players who fulfilled all the criteria above only Maverick McNealy appealed and then he didn’t on price. 30/1 is short for a fellow who flatters to deceive. In contrast, Jaeger has been excellent this year and even took on and defeated Scottie Scheffler. He’s been T30 at Silverado and that’s the weakest of his claims. He has a recent ranking of 10th for Approach, was a winner and second on Poa on the second tier and second at Torrey Pines this year, and he has six top 25s on Ross courses including fifth and ninth at Detroit and T21 in the recent US Open. Matt Wallace The Englishman has finished T21 at Silverado and T10 and T12 at Detroit. He’s ranked second for Approach in recent weeks and has two wins on Poa in Europe and third in the 2019 PGA Championship on it. Nicolai Hojgaard The Dane has never played Silverado but he has a T14 at Ross’s Sedgefield and was T21 at Detroit last year when T11 after 54 holes. On Poa he was second at Torrey Pines this year. He was 20th for Approach in the US Open.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 28/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Matt Wallace at 50/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 55/1 (William Hill, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 66th
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