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This event was conceived as a year opener which was to include only the winners of tournaments in the previous year. But in 2020, of course, Covid ruined the schedule and the list of winners was short so golfers who had qualified for the Tour Championship (the top 30 in the rankings) were also exempt (this year that has been extended to the top 50). With uncanny timing the first winner of the 'Tournament of Champions (and others)' was an other (Harris English). A further factor since then is LIV Golf which both of the last two winners of the tournament have since defected to. What of the test they face, the Plantation Course at Kapalua? It is a par 73 set at a yardage of around 7,596 but that number is slightly deceptive. On the one hand, most of the par-4s are on significant slopes – they can be less then 400 yards but steeply uphill and then over 500 yards but down sweeping slopes. They also have just three par-3s and five par-5s. The design team was Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore and, as should already be obvious, they had a very undulating property to deal with. That means side, up and down hills stances as well as shots. “There are so many awkward little lies,” said Brooks Koepka. “Ball above your feet, below your feet, and then downhill, and then you’re hitting up the hill. Things like that you just don’t find anywhere besides maybe here and Augusta or at least that I’ve played.” The location – high on the cliffs of Maui, Hawaii – also introduces another factor: the tradewinds. “It’s always blowing here and you really got to use it to help your ball get close to the hole,” said Dustin Johnson. “It’s all about controlling the ball and hitting it solid.” Ahead of his win last year Jon Rahm said: “Because of the wind these greens are slower, it's a bit of an adjustment period, right? I’m not the only one who struggles. Most people who don’t have a good week would think putting might be the No. 1 contributing factor to the difference between the winner to somebody who is in 15th place.” He got it right that week (see below to see exactly how). Those greens will remain on the slow side but the forecast is not a bad one – breezy, yes, but not fierce.
Angles to consider 1/ Form Winners here often enjoyed a win late in the preceding year but then that was kind of obvious (they were all winners the previous year, QED roughly half of them must have done so in the second half). But good form really late in the year is key – it tends to be important to have not gone into complete hibernation in November and December. 2/ Undulating course Winners have often played well at Augusta National or Deere Run (the latter is a sneaky one because Steve Stricker, Jonathan Byrd, Zach Johnson, Vijay Singh and Jordan Spieth have all completed the Deere Run-Plantation double) 3/ Putting Recall the words of Rahm. He ranked first for Putting Average last year in his win, making him the eighth winner to have ranked top two in that category.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Russell Henley Henley closed 2023 with a run of five straight top 13 finishes, the first of which was second at the Wyndham Championship. He’s been second at Deere Run and was fourth last year at Augusta. He finished third in this event in 2015 and is both a winner and runner-up at Waialae in the Sony Open. (He also features in the field top 10 for GIR and Par-4 which the site’s trends flag up as important.) Sepp Straka The Austrian ended 2023 with second place in the Hero World Challenge and he was also a winner last year at Deere Run. He can go low, which is required in this event. It was an 8-under-par 64 that grabbed that second place and he closed out at Deere Run with laps of 63-65-62. Luke List List ranked third for PA in this event 12 months ago when he finished a promising T11th. He won on the Pacific Ocean cliff tops at Torrey Pines two years ago and returned to the winner’s circle with victory in the Sanderson Farms Championship at the start of the pre-season (one of five top 25s in his last half dozen starts in 2023). The last time he played Deere Run he finished fourth having been the halfway leader. (Like Henley he features in the top 10 of GIR and Par-4s.)
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 52nd 1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 60/1 (BetFred, BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 12th 1pt e.w. Luke List at 100/1 (William Hill, BetWay 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 22nd
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