The Shriners in Las Vegas is a familiar stop on the PGA Tour and this year it's the fourth leg of the seven-tournament Fall Series.
Just as it’s turning chilly in the UK, the sunshine and bright lights of Las Vegas make a welcoming sight and TPC Summerlin is one where the birdies flow.
Each year money changes hands over whether we’ll see a 59 here although that particular bet hasn’t yet landed.
It’s gone close with Patrick Cantlay, J.J. Henry and Rod Pampling all carding 60s on the 7,255-yard par 71.
TPC Summerlin is a resort course that works its way through canyons and boasts a plethora of water hazards.
The bentgrass greens are on the large side, running at 12 on the stimpmeter, while the fairways are bermuda.
Winning scores are almost always 20-under or better although Cantlay did triumph with 9-under in very windy conditions in 2017.
It could blow up to 20mph on the first two days this year but they drop on the weekend and perfect scoring conditions on Sunday suggest a real sprint for the line and perhaps that elusive first sub-60 round at the Vegas venue.
Tom Kim is the two-time defending champion after victories in 2022 and 2023 and he would become the first player in 13 years to win the same PGA Tour event three years on the spin if successful.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Kim ranked 3rd (2023) and 5th (2022) respectively for SG: Approach in his two wins and that continued a trend. Sungjae Im was sixth in this category in 2021 while 2020 champion Martin Laird ranked 4th. It’s clear that strong iron play works well at TPC Summerlin.
2/ Course form
It’s hard to overlook course form given that recent Shriners winners Tom Kim (2023), Martin Laird (2020) and Kevin Na (2019) were all hitting the jackpot for the second time at TPC Summerlin. Patrick Ccantlay is a three-time runner-up. It’s not a course that looks overly taxing, implying a free-for-all, but the same names often pop up again.
3/ Par Breakers
Kim poured in a tournament-high 27 birdies last year as well as an eagle. Only two players made more birdies than him the year before while 2021 champ Sungjae Im ranked 2nd for red numbers. Pars are often treading water.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Tom Hoge
Tom Hoge looks a strong play here. He definitely has the course form having finished fourth in 2022 (shot a 63, a 64 and a 65 along the way) and that followed seventh, 14th and 24th in three of his previous four visits to Vegas. He leads this field in Strokes Gained: Approach while 20th for Par Breakers completes a full house of ticked boxes.
Beau Hossler
Beau Hossler had a great chance to win another birdie-fest recently but just came up short when losing a playoff after shooting -23 at the Sanderson Farms. He backed that up with 11th at the Black Desert Championship last week. One of the form players in the field, Hossler also has some TPC Summerlin pedigree. He’s made all six cuts and was seventh on his debut and also seventh last year after starting with a 62. His irons have sharpened up too as shown by 23rd and 19th for Approach in his last two starts while he’s 25th for Birdie Average.
J.J. Spaun
With a 10th and two further top 15s in his last half-dozen starts at TPC Summerlin, J.J. Spaun knows how to score here. After finishing the regular season with ninth and third, he showed his well-being with a top 25 in Utah last week via a 64 and three 69s. The American ranks 19th for SG: Approach so irons are his strong suit.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 30/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc
1pt e.w. Beau Hossler at 28/1 (William Hill, 888Sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 23rd
