The PGA Tour season is up and running and there was an element of surprise last week when Chris Kirk took victory at The Sentry, the first of the two Hawaiian season-starting events.
The popular view was that his game was more suited to this week’s short course, Waialae Country Club, rather than the long and wide-open Plantation Course in Maui.
Kirk isn’t some sort of outlier though.
Form from the two events correlate well and now Kirk has the chance to follow in the footsteps of Ernie Els and Justin Thomas by winning the first two Hawaii tournaments of the year in back-to-back weeks.
Comparing the runners and riders from last week to this sees quantity overtake quality.
This is the first full-field event of the season but many of the big names who contested The Sentry including Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa don’t make the hop from Maui to Honolulu.
Waialae is situated by the ocean and coastal breezes can play a part. Wind is definitely a factor on day one but its strength fades as the week goes on.
We can therefore expect a birdie-fest to break out on this Seth Raynor par 70 that measures just over 7,000 yards.
Angles to consider
1/ The Sentry
Why does form on the totally different Plantation Course count for so much? Timing (many players are rusty after the Christmas break), location (both in Hawaii) and slow Bermuda greens are shared. Note that just playing last week is a strong pointer as eight of the last 10 Sony winners had teed it up at The Sentry a week earlier.
2/ SG: Approach
The SG: Tee To Green stat needs to be broken down this week as Off The Tee and Around The Green are nowhere near as important as Approach. Si Woo Kim was 1st for this category when winning last year while 2021 champ Kevin Na was 5th and 2019 victor Matt Kuchar 7th. A lot of shots are struck from the 150-175-yard range.
3/ Par 4 Scoring
Play the par 4s better than most and it virtually guarantees a top eight finish which is worth knowing for each-way punts. It all makes sense given that Waialae, a par 70, has two more than usual.
4/ Course form
A strong previous showing at Waialae is a definite bonus. Course form here really does carry plenty of weight and three of the last five winners had posted a previous top four in the Sony; the other two, a 12th and an 18th .
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Chris Kirk
Just because Kirk won a week too early it doesn’t mean we ignore him here. The American has course form galore at Waialae with two second places, a third, a fifth and a 10th. Two of his top threes came in the last three years. Last week’s Sentry champion was 12th for SG: Approach last week and topped the Par 4 scoring charts. His confidence will be through the roof.
Justin Rose
It’s been a while since Rose contested this event but he was second on his last visit in 2017 having posted 13th, 12th and 20th in three of his first four Sony Opens. He certainly found something in round four of the Sentry on Sunday, ranking 1st in SG: Approach and shooting a 12-under 61!
Adam Svensson
The Canadian concluded with a trio of 68s at The Sentry in his first PGA Tour start since a fifth (2nd SG: Approach) in November’s RSM Classic, a tournament whose results also correlate well with this one. Svensson has made all three cuts here and was seventh in 2022. He opened with a 61 on debut in 2019.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 57th
1pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 33/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 30th
