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We’re down to the top 70 players in the 2024 FedEx Cup rankings and there are only three weeks of Play Offs to go. After four rounds this week in Memphis just the top 50 will progress to the second event, the BMW Championship, and from there just the top 30 will head to the Tour Championship. In the past this event had a different name and tended to take place in the north-east of the United States but it moved to Tennessee in 2022 and half took the name of the event we knew well that was played at TPC Southwind (the St Jude Classic). The grass matters this week. Bermuda grass on the greens is nothing too outlandish but Zoysia on the fairways is a little more unusual – it favours golfer who sweep their irons rather than hit down on them (think Justin Leonard who loved it at TPC Southwind). It’s also true that finding the greens from the fairways is a relatively easy task while it is very difficult from the gnarly rough so quality ball striking matters. Although designed by Ron Prichard in the ate 1980s, past winner Justin Thomas said: “It’s super old school. You’ve just got to put the ball in the fairway and then if you do, you have some score-able clubs into some greens where you can take advantage and make a lot of birdies.” You might want to consider that not only are some golfers seeking to make the top 50 to remain involved in the play offs, other are keeping an eye on the top 30.
Angles to consider 1/ Course form Each of the last six winners at TPC Southwind had already logged a top 20 finish at the course – and the man that preceded that half dozen was the back-to-back winner Daniel Berger. 2/ Strokes Gained Approach and Tee to Green With half the holes featuring dog legs and 10 of them having water hazards in play, the long game comes to the fore this week. That’s the case during play but it also tends to be flagged before. The last six course winners ranked top 32 for SG Approach and SG Tee to Green for the season ahead of teeing it up. 3/ Par 4s As a par 70 the par 4s matter a little more and winners have accordingly thrived on them. But, as above, they have also flagged up their competency before their arrival with all of the last six ranking top 30 for the season’s par 4 average.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Corey Conners The Canadian’s long game looks a fine fit for this week. He ranks eighth for SG Tee to Green, fourth for SG Approach and 26th for par-4s. He was also sixth at TPC Southwind last year. He’s very consistent. No missed cut in over a year. Top 30s for fun. Four top 10s in his last seven starts. This could be the week when he contends again. Shane Lowry The Irishman was sixth at TPC Southwind in 2020 and he’s had a year of flirting with the lead. The was the 54-hole co-leader at PGA National and Bay Hill, two back with 18 holes to play in the PGA Championship after a third round 62, carded the score again at TPC River Highlands and was the halfway leader in the Open. (He also won the pairs event with Rory McIlroy.) He ranks 18th for SG Tee to Green, ninth for SG Approach and 15th for Par-4s. Aaron Rai Can the Englishman emulate Lucas Glover and win at Sedgefield and Southwind in successive weeks? He can certainly go close. He finished T12 on debut at this week’s course in 2019 and, although he’s never repeated that, he was briefly tied fifth after a first round 66 last year. He ranks seventh for SG Tee to Green, sixth for SG Approach and sixth for Par-4s. Last week’s win was also a fourth top seven finish in five starts.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 50th 1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 45/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 50th 1pt e.w. Aaron Rai at 40/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 16th
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