A look at the betting is enough to tell us that trying to create the exciting end-of-season Playoffs as seen in other US Sports hasn’t worked again.
Of the 30 players heading to East Lake for the FedEx Cup finale, 28 of them are double-figure odds or more to scoop the $25m jackpot on offer.
In short, it looks to be a shootout between 11/10 Scottie Scheffler and 12/5 Xander Schauffele and, to be fair, it’s probably correct that one of the American duo should win given the stellar seasons they’ve enjoyed.
Of course, as well as being the standouts of 2024, the “starting strokes” rule brought in five years ago means they have a head start on all their rivals.
Here’s how the scoreboard will look ahead of the opening tee-shot on Thursday.
-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Xander Schauffele
-7 Hideki Matsuyama
-6 Keegan Bradley
-5 Ludvig Aberg
-4 Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
-3 Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau
-2 Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre
-1 Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith
Even Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas
East Lake has undergone some renovation work since last year, with the par 71 now measuring 7,490 yards. It’s set to play firm and fast if the weather holds.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strong driving is required at East Lake, something players often allude to in press conferences. The stats back it up as four times in the last five years, the shooter of the lowest 72-hole score has ranked in the top five for SG: Off The Tee.
2/ Strokes Gained: Putting
The flatstick has been a key weapon too for those going low. Hovland and Schauffele dominated scoring last year and ranked 4th and 3rd for SG: Putting. In the previous three years, those firing the lowest score on the week ranked 2nd, 5th and 2nd for SG: Putting.
3/ Donald Ross
East Lake is one of Ross’ masterpieces. It shares similarities and correlatory form with Sedgefield Country Club and Detroit. Oak Hill, another DR course, staged last year’s US PGA Championship while this year’s US Open was held on his famed Pinehurst No.2 so that form is worth checking too.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Xander Schauffele to win FedEx Cup
If this genuinely is a two-horse race, there’s certainly value in backing Schauffele to emerge from Scheffler’s shoulder and kick clear down the stretch. Schauffele, a major winner in both May and July, has a tremendous record here and shot 19-under over the 72 holes last year, a massive 18 shots better than Scheffler. He won’t repeat that but undoubtedly Schauffele has a psychological edge on this course and this year ranks 2nd for SG: Off The Tee and 7th for SG: Putting (Scheffler is only 87th).
Viktor Hovland to finish Top 5
