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The field has hope this week because the red-hot World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has gone home to celebrate winning both back-to-back in the Players Championship and also in the last fortnight. Back-to-backs are something of a theme with the history of this week’s event, as it happens, because Paul Casey won in 2018 and 2019 and Sam Burns did so in 2021 and 2022. And this tournament, which is exactly as old as the century, has also seen KJ Choi and Retief Goosen win twice. The host is the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort which is typical for Florida in being blustery, resort style and having Bermuda greens, but unusual because it is tree-lined and undulating. A par-71 with an unusual five par-3s it is set at 7,340 yards and has two distinct qualities: conservative driving is suited and it has small greens. Scheffler’s caddie Ted Scott used to work for Bubba Watson and told his then boss: “To play good round here you’re going to have to play boring golf.” Henrik Stenson once explained: “You position yourself from the tee a lot. Quite a few 2-irons and 4-woods, 3-woods off the tee and little bit longer irons into the greens which are pretty small and kind of sits at an angle towards you quite a lot so you want to try to keep it underneath the hole because I can only imagine the kind of quick putts you can get if you end up in the wrong place or chipping from the wrong place.” Casey agreed, saying: “There’s a premium on ball striking” 2017 winner Adam Hadwin added: “It’s similar to courses that I grew up on, through the trees. You’ve got to work the ball both ways. You’ve got to be in position off the tee, otherwise you get blocked out on certain holes.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained stats The Tee to Green rankings of the last seven winners are very strong: fourth, fifth, sixth, first, fifth, fourth and second. All of them ranked top 14 for Approach and six of those were top seven. Their Putting ranks were good too: six of them 15th or better with Paul Casey’s defence the glaring exception (43rd). 2/ SG form Five of the last six winners had ranked top 20 for Putting at least once in a tournament that year and all six had ranked top 20 for Approach. 3/ Course links Players who have played Deere Run and Augusta National well have also done well here – because of the elevation changes? And then there is Muirfield Village: defending champion Taylor Moore is the only winner in the last 10 who did not already own a top 20 finish at Muirfield Village. Going further back, KJ Choi, Vijay Singh and Carl Petterson had won at Muirfield Village, other winners had a fine record there too.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Brian Harman The halfway leader at Bay Hill before a nasty third round then he recovered from a terrible start at Sawgrass last week to genuinely contend and he left frustrated by that slow start which, he said, cost “something special”. He’s hurt by the length of Augusta but has finished T12th there, he’s won at Deere Run (one of five top 30s there) and he has a top 20 at Muirfield Village as of 2022. Back in 2013 he was eighth at Innisbrook (when two back with 18 holes to play) and he was fifth in 2022. Top three for Approach the last two weeks and fifth for Putting last week also. Sepp Straka Made his tournament debut last year, finishing only T46th but he did lead after an opening 66. He then won at Deere Run and has two top 20s at Muirfield Village including T16th last year. Also made two cuts at Augusta. Top 20 for Approach last week. He lacks a Putting top 20 but we’ll let him off because so much else is good. Already a winner in Florida. Thorbjorn Olesen He was eighth at Muirfield Village back in 2014 and he’s played Augusta well, too (sixth on debut, also T44th and T21st). Top 20 for Approach in three of his five starts this year including first when winning in the UAE and twice top four for Putting. A winner in each of the last three years and this is a nice opportunity for him to break out in the States. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Brian Harman at 22/1 (888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 60/1 (PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 66/1 (Skybet, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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