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There are certain weeks when punters lick their lips, knowing that a course and an event present a juicy opportunity for profits. And that is what the Wyndham Championship and Sedgefield Country Club represents. In raw terms, the week is competitively tasty because only the top 70 in the FedEx Cup rankings will progress to the first of the three PlayOffs. The real key to the week for us, however, is the course. Sedgefield is a Donald Ross design that features elevation changes and small greens. Moreover, there is little call for any kind of bluster from the tee box – only the foolhardy will attempt to make gains with length, the majority will accept that a conservative blow will help them negotiate the many dog legs, find the short grass and then seek to knock their approaches close. The course measures 7,131 yards which again highlights how it helps shorter players and it is played on Bermuda grass greens which again suggests some names ahead of others. Seven of the last eight winners was 20-under-par for the week or better – going low matters. “You don’t have a huge advantage here (big-hitting) just because everybody’s hitting in the same spots off most of the tees,” said past winner Brandt Snedeker. “I think that’s why guys who wedge and putt it better tend to do a better job here.” The difficulty of those approaches is tricky rather than difficult, as the scores demonstrate. Nonetheless, Patrick Reed has said: “You can get creative (with approaches) because there's a lot of slopes and undulations in these greens so you can use a lot of ridges to feed the ball back towards the hole.” “It’s one of those golf courses where if you’re on with your irons that’s kind of what it’s all about,” said Peter Uihlein. “Old-school Donald Ross where it’s very positional, you’re not going to overpower it. You’ve got to be pretty sharp with your short irons especially, and then make some putts.” Angles to consider 1/ The Sawgrass-Sedgefield Connection Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Davis Love III, Si Woo Kim and Henrik Stenson have all completed the course double and Adam Scott and Kevin Kisner have won one and lost in extra holes at the other. 2/ Strokes Gained Approach In the SG era six of eight winners ranked top four or better in this category. The two exceptions weren’t bad either: rankings 12th. Moreover, seven of the last eight winners had ranked 11th or better for SG Approach in one of their three starts leading into the week (often on similar types of test). 3/ Donald Ross In the last five years Detroit GC, another Ross design, has been a few weeks before this one in the schedule and four of the winners finished 11th or better there. The man who won before that, Snedeker, finish fifth at Detroit 11 months later! All of the last eight winners have fine Ross records. Even Jim Herman’s three top 20s which counts as good for him.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Billy Horschel The trio at the top of the market have form, Ross form, course form and approach form. Horschel edges it because his overall package is best and so is his price. At Sedgefield he is 10-for-11 at making the cut, has four top six finishes in his last seven starts and three of those were in his last four. He’s also been third at Ross’ Aronimink, has a top 20 at Detroit and posted a 67 at Pinehurst when T41 in the US Open in June. He was a winner in April and second in the Open last time out when fifth for SG Approach. Erik Van Rooyen The South African was sixth in Detroit when, after a slow start, he spent the last three rounds in contention. Before that his Ross record wasn’t that great but look closer and his course record is better than it seems. On debut in 2021 he opened with a 65 to sit in the top 10, had a poor third round but bounced back with another 65 on Sunday. Last year he opened with a poor score before nearly making the cut with a 67. He ranked seventh for Approach in the Scottish Open and eighth last time out when T17 in the Olympics. Nick Dunlap A big price this week for a fellow who has won twice this season. The first was when he was still amateur, the second just weeks ago in the opposite field event Barracuda Championship. He was also tenth at Detroit in June when he spent all week in the top 15. Approach play has not been his outstanding trait, but he ranked ninth at Muirfield Village and, crucially, fifth at Detroit.
Tips: 1-2; -3.60pts 1pt e.w. Billy Horschel at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 7th 1pt e.w. Erik Van Rooyen at 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Nick Dunlap at 80/1 (Unibet, SpreadEx, BetMGM, BetUK 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc
* Skybet are 66/1 but the only book at this price
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