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We’re set for the sixth edition of the ZOZO Championship and after a slightly hectic start to its life on the PGA Tour this annual visit to Japan has become something of a staple. Back in 2019 it began with a victory for Tiger Woods (his last no less). In 2020, Covid forced the event to California but it has been back at Narashino Country Club since 2021 (when Hideki Matsuyama thrilled the home crowds). Since then Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa have become winners. It’s a tree-lined golf course and tight enough that Rory McIlroy likened it to the very narrow Chapultepec which hosted the World Golf Championship Mexico Championship, not least because there are doglegs which can, with bold and well-executed drives, be taken on. But the first blow is also important because of the grass this week. There is Zoysia grass on the fairways and also in the rough and Jason Day once said of it: “I’ve never played rough like this. The blade of grass is huge.” Last year’s winner Morikawa said before he claimed the victory: “You don’t have to hit driver at all. It’s really important to hit the fairways. Even though the rough isn’t super long, it’s still penalizing into small greens.” It’s quite funny, therefore, that he ranked 68th out of 78 golfers for driving accuracy. He did, however, ranked third for hitting greens in regulation which is exactly what the previous winner Keegan Bradley ranked (we have had no Strokes Gained data for these events).
Angles to consider 1/ Firestone Country Club Two years ago we selected Keegan Bradley when he won based on the notion that Firestone CC – another WGC venue – was a good pointer. That was, after all, a tight course that favoured excellent drivers of the ball who could hit small greens. Bradley, like Woods and Matsuyama, was a winner at Firestone. Given that Firestone hasn’t been on tour for a long while it is undoubtedly a diminishing notion but one worth considering. 2/ Quality Last year’s field strength was down on previous years and some of the quality did struggle but Morikawa made it 4-for-4 for major winners. 3/ Greens in Regulation In addition to Morikawa and Bradley ranking third, that was Woods’ ranking when he won (there were no stats when Matsuyama won). In the year of their wins Woods had ranked third for GIR at Chapultepec, Matsuyama had ranked second at Waialae and Morikawa second at Colonial. So the three had a) notched a top three ranking for GIR, and b) done so at tightish courses known for doglegs. Bradley did have one top three rankings at River Highlands which is less well known for doglegs and being tight but it is a little fiddly.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas He’s a major champion (two times over) and he’s a winner at Firestone (in 2018). He was also a very fine performer at Chapultepec (four starts, always finishing in the top four). He didn’t have a great year but was fifth at Heritage (tight), eight at Valhalla (third for GIR), fifth at River Highlands and seventh in the raw scoring last time out at East Lake. He was 17th on debut at Narashino in 2019 when carding a final round 65. Gary Woodland The 2019 US Open champion has had a terrible time of it since surgery on his brain last year but he has found some form in recent times. His 16th in the Sandersons Farms Championship was a first top 20 since recovery and he improved to ninth last week in Las Vegas. His driving and approach stats were good in both those weeks. He’s played Narashino once when the first round leader in 2019 ahead of finishing fifth. Rickie Fowler Back in 2022 Fowler was second in this event and he might be able to emulate Xander Schauffele (who won the Tokyo Olympics) and Collin Morikawa (who won this event) in winning in a country in which he has family heritage. His form has not been great since he won last summer (prior to which it had been superb) but after a break he was 16th in the Sandersons Farms Championship and 23rd last week in the Shriners Children’s Open when much improved tee to green. Not a major winner but three times second.
Tips: 2-1; +12.00pts 1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 20/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 2nd 1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 55/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 33rd 1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 60/1 (William Hill, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 4th
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