ACE Group Classic

Third event of the year and we're yet to have anyone other than Larry Nelson in the winner's circle! Such has been the transformation in his form that he has won six of his last ten events and finishing 2nd in two others. A formality this week? I don't think so. There is only one year of course form to work with and last 18th place finish is not too inspiring, but maybe more of note is the setup of the course itself. Pelican Marsh is described as a tight course with "restrictive fairways" and this is reflected in the course compatibility stats - last year's leaderboard players were very accurate off the tee. Nelson's is one of the more powerful players on the Senior Tour and his resulting lack of accuracy may be important this week.

The three people tipped to challenge Nelson this week are Allen Doyle, Dana Quigley and Jose Maria Canizares who all finished in the top-6 last year on this course. There are few people more accurate than Doyle off the tee and he currently tops the season's fairways hit stats. He comes here on the back of a 7th and a 6th place finish this year and with a 5th place finish last year, there is every reason to expect him to be challenging again on Sunday. Incidentally, that 5th place finish was just one shot shy of being in the play-off for the title.

No surprise that 'Iron Man' Quigley is teeing it up this week and he should be doing so with confidence. In strokeplay terms, he had the 2nd best score last week and had an excellent event last year, leading for the first two rounds, only to be overtaken in the final round and finish in 6th place, two shots out of the playoff. His power game would seem ill-suited to Pelican Marsh, but it worked last year and such things are needed to lift your game when you compete every single week!

The final pick is one player who did manage to get in that four-man playoff last year, Jose Maria Canizares. He finished in mid-table last week, but the return to Pelican Marsh should raise his game and at good odds for a place finish, a repeat of last year's performance would be very profitable.

Unfortunately, with the demise of First Stake, the future of good outs for these Senior Tour plays looks rather uncertain and at the time of writing, only one online sportsbook is offering outright odds on this event It can only get better!

Outright plays:

Allen Doyle 25/1

Dana Quigley 40/1

Jose Maria Canizares 66/1

All prices are e/w with BetSmart

1st round update:

Apart from wishing (i) First Stake were still alive and (ii) this was Sunday night, it doesn't get much better than this! 66/1 play Canizares sits on top of the leaderboard, while 40/1 play Quigley lies in 2nd place as well. Doesn't matter that Doyle is 16th, this could be a long weekend!

2nd round update:

Becoming a long weekend! Canizares quickly dropped 3 shots to fall to 15th, but a late rally brought him back to 6th place, three shots behind the leader Gil Morgan and in the same position as Allen Doyle who jumped ten places on the day. Quigley is now the best placed of the three, lying in 2nd place, just one shot behind Morgan. Could very easily come out of this tournament who enormous profits or nothing at all!

Final update: 1-2 and +2.50 units

Another frustrating finish to one of this week's events. Quigley pressed hard, but never caught Morgan, eventually finishing 2nd and two shots behind. A place finish at least, which was not the case for Caniz  Should be encouraged by a strong performance from picks, but just left to rue what might have been.