Ford Seniors Players Championship

The final major on the Senior PGA Tour and it is only mid-July! Most players took last week off as they recuperated from the Salem CC and the course they will find this week is very different. This is a Jack Nicklaus-designed course so it is not too surprising that 15-under-par won this major last year or that in the two years beforehand, the winning score had been 21-under-par. Typically, the driving areas are generous and the challenge on a Nicklaus course comes with the approach shot. The greens are small, hard and fast. Some even have three or four levels. Nevertheless, scoring is low each, giving this the feel of a regular Tour event rather than a major.

As ever, Irwin has dominated this major with four top-4 finishes in the past five years, but his odds are much too short to be contemplated. Instead, it is left to the usual suspects ... Gil Morgan, Allen Doyle and Dana Quigley. Morgan's record in this event is almost as good as Irwin's. He won in 1998 and has never been out of the top-10. As this is a course that should suit the longer-hitters, that should be no surprise. He has finished in the top-5 in all but one of his last seven events, including two majors and really should have taken Fleisher to a playoff two weeks ago. With BetInternet offering 5 places this week, the safety net of the each-way play should make this a profitable play.

It was quite a surprise when for only the 2nd time in twelve events, Allen Doyle did not finish in the top-10 last week. The charge in front of his home crowd obviously took too much out of him, though I fully expect a return to type this week. Top-10 finishes in all the year's majors and 4th in the last two, Doyle looks a good proposition to secure another place finish with the top-5 and not the top-4 the benchmark this week. He has proved himself the most consistent golfer on Tour this season, maybe he can even secure his first win of the year this week.

The odds on Dana Quigley surprise me. He has finished no worse than 11th in his last four events, was in serious contention at the US Seniors Open until the final day, was a strong 3rd place last week and would have taken Ray Floyd to a playoff last year had he only parred the last hole. Yet he is available at 66/1! True, his nerve may stop him from winning this title, but he is a much better player than those odds give him credit. He is a player who rides on confidence and if he starts well, he should remain on contention all week.

Outright plays:

Gil Morgan to win 10/1 e.w. @ BetInternet  [Surrey offer 12/1 @ 4 places]

Allen Doyle to win 16/1 e.w. @ BetInternet  [Surrey offer 18/1 @ 4 places]

Dana Quigley to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet

72-hole plays:

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder -110 @ Surrey [3 units]
Expecting a big week out of Doyle. He coasted along last week whereas Gilder was right in contention until a final round collapse. Not ideal preparation the week after and before a major and while he should finish in the top-20, Doyle should revert to type this week and secure another top-5 position on a course that he has played; something that Gilder has not

Gil Morgan to beat Tom Kite +105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Kite has shown that he is at his best on tight courses and this is not one. While Kite has raised his game when playing with the juniors on the PGA Tour, he has not been able to do so on the Senior Tour. His best in a Senior major this year is 15th; Morgan's worst is 4th and I can't see him any lower than that this week

1st round plays:

Gil Morgan to beat Tom Kite -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder -120 @ Five Dimes

Dana Quigley to beat Gary McCord -123 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

1st round update: 2-1-0 and +1.90 units

Good opening day marred only by Morgan's dropped shot at the last. It meant he lost by one to Kite, but at least Doyle beat Gilder by six and Quigley beat McCord by two shots. Those are also the positions in the two 72-hole plays. Thought Morgan would have ended the day higher than 16th alongside Quigley, but there's still time. Doyle though is joint leader with four others and five ahead of Morgan and Quigley.

2nd round play:

Allen Doyle to beat Tom Kite +100 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-1-0 and -1.00 units

Second loss of the week and the second one by a single shot. But at least Doyle remained in contention for the title, slipping to 3rd, but only one shot behind Irwin and Watson. In his 72-hole play, he now leads Gilder by 13, while Morgan still trails Kite by one and is still five shots out of the lead. Quigley has rather a lot to make up on the leading pack, being four shots behind Morgan.

3rd round play

Gil Morgan to beat Tom Kite -105 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-0-0 and +1.00 units

Got revenge on Kite for yesterday's loss with Morgan today. He beat Kite by two and also moved ahead of him by one in the 72-hole play. Doyle has a rather safe 19-shot lead over Gilder in the other play. Doyle still very much in the mix in the outrights, he remains 2nd on a day when other favorites fell back. Morgan jumped to 6th and only four shots out of the lead so may get a double this week. Quigley has shot level-par every round and stays out of the hunt in 24th.

4th round play:

Tom Kite to beat Tom Watson -110 @ Five Dimes

Final update: 1-0-0 and +1.00 units for the day; 5-3-0 and +3.90 units for the week

Kite edged out Watson by a shot for a win on the day's play, but it was a tainted win. With Morgan taking 40 to come home, Kite's score for the day meant he beat Morgan by one shot in the 72-hole play. At least there was a rather comprehensive 29-shot win for Doyle over Gilder in the other play.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +8.00 units

Probably the last time that Doyle will be a selection ... his odds will be too short from now till the end of the season! Great putt on the 18th to force a playoff, which Tewell duly lost. After missing out on three other very strong chances for outright wins today on the other Tours, this was greeted with relief rather than celebration! Could have been a great week and this win made sure it was a decent one. For the record, Morgan finished 13th and Quigley's 4th successive 72 meant he finished 23rd.