Gold Rush Classic

With just five events left, the Senior PGA Tour heads west. The destination is the Serrano Country Club in the Sierra Nevada foothills. It is a very easy course with wide fairways and little more than elevation changes as defences for the course. The signature hole is the 11th hole which is a 173-yard par-3, featuring a 70-foot drop from the tee, over a rock-lined creek to the green. Last year Jim Thorpe won this event with a score of 21-under-par over just 54 holes! With the elevation changes and the large number of blind shots, as Tom Kite has admitted, previous experience on this course is highly advantageous. Apart from the first year for obvious reasons, all the previous winners of this event at Serrano CC were making their 2nd visits to the course when they won. All bar David Graham, that is, he won on his 4th visit to Serrano.

This week's selections have therefore played this course previously and are in good current form. They are Allen Doyle, Gary McCord and Dana Quigley. Doyle has played in this event three times and finished in the top-5 on each occasion. Having rediscovered his mid-summer form with a runners-up spot last week, he should make this another top-5 finish and maintain his lead at the top of the Schwab Cup standings list. Surrey maintain their 5 places on Senior Tour outright which is very welcome, but their price of 8/1 is much more realistic than his odds elsewhere despite the loss of a place.

McCord shared the runners-up spot with Doyle last week and that was as a 50/1 selection. Naturally, those odds are not on offer this week, but with a good record on this course - two top-10 finishes in three starts - he can secure another high finish. He has now finished in the top-10 in each of his last four Senior events and has a good chance to secure his first Senior Tour win for two years.

Quigley's last Tour win was only two months ago and his has hardly dipped since early summer, let alone that win at the SBC Senior Open. In his last 18 events he has finished outside the top-15 on just three occasions. With a competitive drive unmatched on Tour and great course form, he should have a great week. He did win this event in 1998 on his 2nd visit and has finished in the top-10 on both occasions since that victory.

Outright plays:

Allen Doyle to win 14/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold, Bet365 or Stan James

Gary McCord to win 20/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Dana Quigley to win 20/1 e.w. @ Surrey

54-hole plays:

Bruce Fleisher to beat Bruce Lietzke -130 @ Five Dimes
Lietzke's game may have suddenly burst into life with two wins and two other top-3 finishes in his last five events, but as outlined above, this is not a course for rookies. Of the players mentioned above that have won this event on their 2nd visit, they averaged a finishing position of 29th in their first year. This is Fleisher's 2nd visit to Serrano (11th last time) and he has been playing very well for quite some time ... well enough with course knowledge on his side to beat Lietzke this week

Tom Kite to beat Bobby Wadkins -135 @ Five Dimes
Since winning his debut Senior Tour event, Wadkins has achieved two more top-10 finishes, but he has not been anywhere near as spectacular as fellow rookie, Lietzke. Weaker current form and no course form weigh against Wadkins this week. Kite's game has been much more solid with a very high percentage of top-10 finishes and crucially this will be the 2nd time that he will have played Serrano (16th last year)

Simon Bold have added some matchups this morning and as usual there are some weak lines ... on paper! So adding the following:

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Doyle seems to be paired with Gilder on a frequent basis, but Gilder is not in the same class of player as Doyle this year. Gilder finished 10th last week to record his first top-10 for seven events. Doyle finished 2nd and in the last 5 common events, Doyle has won every time. Add to that the fact that Gilder has not played this course before and Doyle should win that with ease

Dave Eichelberger to beat DeWitt Weaver -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
No problems with course experience from these two senior Seniors, though neither has played particularly well here in the last few years. This play is simply a play against Weaver who has recorded just one finish in the top-35 all season long and that was five months ago! Eichelberger has recorded four top-10s alone and in their 23 common events this season Eichelberger leads 19-4

John Jacobs to beat Lanny Wadkins -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Another mismatch! Jacobs has two top-3 finishes on this course, including 3rd last year, and has yet to finished outside the top-30 in eight events since the State Farm Senior Classic in July. In the same period, Lanny Wadkins returned from a two-month injury layoff, but has yet to finish in the top-50 in any of his five events

Bruce Fleisher to beat Bruce Lietzke -111 @ Simon Bold
Adding another unit on an existing play because of the attractive price

Tom Kite to beat Bobby Wadkins -111 @ Simon Bold
Adding another unit on an existing play because of the attractive price

Final update: 4-1-0 and +8.59 units

Very nice return on the matchup thanks to Simon Bold's mismatches   Doyle beat Gilder by 18 shots, Eichelberger beat Weaver by 2 shots and Jacobs beat Lanny Wadkins by 12 shots. The two original plays were split: Kite won the event and beat Bobby Wadkins by 17 shots, while Fleisher lost to Lietzke by 4 shots. A profitable week, despite the near miss on the outrights.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units

Doyle shot 21-under-par for 54 holes and still lost to Kite by a shot in an epic shootout. The scoring average around Serrano was 1/4 lower than on any other course on Tour this season and experience was vital ... Kite won on his 2nd visit to continue the pattern highlighted earlier. McCord finished 8th and Quigley 11th to just miss out on adding to the profits on this event.