Instinet Classic

It's major season - the US Open this week; the MacDonald's LPGA Championship next week and the US Senior Open the week after - but in the meantime, the other Tours continue as usual. Almost as usual, I suppose, as the Ladies have taken refuge from the US Open by flying to France, but for the Seniors this is another regular Tour event. Tom Kite and Hale Irwin may be preparing to do battle with Southern Hill, but this week sees the return of Gil Morgan and Bruce Fleischer. For the second time, they play at the Gary Player-designed TPC at Jasna Polana which is noteworthy not just for the tree-lined, undulating course but also for the clubhouse.

In the first few months of the season, the weekly selections were nearly always Canizares, Doyle and Quigley. Their successes has meant that their odds have dropped, but maybe the value has shifted to another set of players, particularly given the views taken by BetSmart and UKBetting: Quigley (still), Hall and Jenkins. These were the three selections last week and they are again this week. I noted two weeks at the BellSouth Senior Classic that Quigley was following a good week-bad week pattern - should have avoided him last week then! - and duly enough he finished down the field in 33rd place. But he had been up with the leaders after the 1st round only to suffer a 78 in the 2nd, so there is no concern that this was a deterioration of form. With a top-15 finish last year, he looks set to continue the pattern.

Hall and Jenkins opened with poor rounds, but closed very strongly. Hall was only two shots out of a place finish and Jenkins again finished in the top-15. With Hall in great form - he has finished in the top-10 in five of his last seven events - he can surely improve on last week's near miss by eliminating that one bad round. The same is true for Jenkins, but there may be reason why he should improve on his run of good, but not spectacular finishes. He won this event in 1999 at Chester Valley and was tied with Gil Morgan and Bob Murphy after 36 holes only to fall back in the final round to 4th. With an excellent history and in good form, he should perform far better than his odds suggest.

Outright plays:

Dana Quigley to win 40/1 e.w. @ UKBetting

Walter Hall to win 66/1 e.w. @ UKBetting or BetSmart

Tom Jenkins to win 66/1 e.w. @ UKBetting or BetSmart  

2nd round play:

Sammy Rachels to beat Terry Mauney -117 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-1-0 and -1.17 units

Close match, but eventually Rachels lost out by one shot. Been unusual to find a matchup at Five Dimes lately that I like for the Senior Tour, so not a great return there. Should be some joy with the outrights, even though they worsened today. Jenkins had been 2nd and Quigley 6th overnight, but they both fell back two places. Hall is in 19th place, but at only three shots out of a place position, he could yet be a profitable play.

3rd round play:

John Bland to beat Rocky Thompson -112 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Final update: 0-1-0 and -3.36 units; 0-2-0 and -4.53 units for the week

Sorry week on the matchups as Bland finishes five shots behind Thompson and complete a 0-for-2 week.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +5.75 units

Lost most of the gains on the matchups, but at least there were some winners this week! Jenkins finished two shots behind Morgan in 2nd place, but never really threatened to win. Quigley had been joint 2nd with Jenkins on the back nine, but he parred the last ten holes and was overtaken. He finished 6th, while Hall finished 19th.