Kroger Senior Classic

A strong field assembles for the last Kroger Senior Classic to be contested on the Grizzly course at Kings Island. Only Bruce Fleisher and Doug Tewell are absent from the top-10 on the Senior Tour money list. Next year the event moves to the newly-opened TPC at River's Bend, just eight miles away. The event is also noteworthy for being the scene of another Senior Tour debut. This time it's Don Pooley and after Bruce Lietzke's and Bobby Wadkins' debuts this year, they have become more important to take into account. He is offered at 16/1 with Surrey after securing two top-10 finishes on the Buy.com Tour this year. No thanks.

The Grizzly course was designed and named after Jack Nicklaus who also holds the course record here with a 62 in the 1973 inaugural PGA Tour Kings Island Open. The course is characterized by long multi-curved fairways with large trees retained as natural hazards, as well as numerous water hazards and bunkers. The par-70 setup for the Seniors is not too testing and low-scoring is the norm each year, though the course can play much tougher and has hosted events from three different Tours, including 12 major championships on the LPGA Tour.

The three selections are Gil Morgan, Jose Maria Canizares and Tom Jenkins. Morgan may have finished a poor 29th in the low-scoring Novell Utah Showdown, but that was his worst finish in over a year and he has had a very consistent season, having finished 1st or 2nd five times this year. He does have a good record in this event. He won on his debut in 1999 and finished a close 4th last year; every round at this course has been in the 60s. Another factor is that he did not play in last week's 4-day event in Canada. The long haul from Ontario and the extra day's play will have an effect on players this week, Ed Dougherty has admitted in interview this week that he is very tired because of these factors. Fresher than many of the field and with great form on this course, he gets the headline selection.

The next two are rather more speculative. Both are available at 40/1 at Surrey, so the price with Stan James plus the extra place is quite an incentive! Canizares also missed last week's event and comes into the event following finishes of 3rd (3M Championship) and 7th (Long Island Classic) in his last two events. His course form is not great, but he appears to be finding his early season form and has shown he can beat the best players on this Tour.

Tom Jenkins, on the other hand, did play last week and disappointed when a huge hope for more Canadian success. He would have been dropped in favor of Gary McCord were it not for his price. 100/1 is much too large for a player that had finished 7th and 2nd in the two weeks before the Canada Senior Open. He may be tired, but is worth a speculative punt on a player that, if he can get a good 1st round under his belt, is very capable of securing an extremely profitable top-5 finish.

Outright plays:

Gil Morgan to win 10/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Jose Maria Canizares to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Tom Jenkins to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

54-hole plays:

Hugh Baiocchi to beat Ted Goin -111 @ Simon Bold
The South African is a former winner of this event (1998) and has been a very consistent competitor on Tour this year with three top-5 finishes. Goin may have finished 10th last week, but with only one other top-10 finish this debut year and having failed to beat Baiocchi in any other six events in the last two months, he is opposed in this match

Jay Sigel to beat Al Geiberger -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Rather more of a mismatch here. Sigel is also a former winner (1997) and has been in good form since returning from injury - three top-10 finishes in his last five events. Geiberger's last top-10 finish was over a year ago and is not the player that won this event 10 years ago

Gil Morgan to beat Don Pooley -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Morgan seems to be continually paired with the Tour debutants. Split the matchups with him against Bobby Wadkins, but hoping for better against Pooley. Wadkins had grown up on the course and had the inspiration of matching his brother's achievement on his debut. But now that Wadkins achieved that feat, the media attention on Pooley is much more intense and so is the pressure. Can't see him getting close and the headline outright selection is also a very strong pick in this matchup

Final update: 1-2-0 and -4.55 units

Poor display in the matchups though the curtailment of the event to just 36 holes can hardly be an excuse as the outrights were almost spectacular! Baiocchi beat Goin by four shots, but there were very poor performances from Sigel and Morgan. Morgan failed to finish in the top-20, while Sigel failed to even finish in the top-50 in a 78-man event! The results: Sigel lost to Geiberger by five shots and Morgan lost to Pooley by four.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +7.50 units

So close to the 2nd 100/1 winner of the year   Both Jenkins and Thorpe had played just one playoff before this one and it had been against each other at the 1999 Bell Atlantic Classic. Jenkins prevailed that time, but not this one. He played a poor hole and lost it at the 1st playoff hole   Still a decent return for 2nd place though and more than made up for a poor performance in the matchups. As for the other two picks, Canizares finished 17th and Morgan 22nd.