Las Vegas Senior Classic

The Senior PGA Tour rolls into Las Vegas for the sixteenth year of this event and after two years of being a 72-hole tournament it was reduced to 54 holes last year. The Seniors obviously wanted more time on the Strip! In recent years the event has been dominated by the big name players: Hale Irwin and Larry Nelson have won this event three years out of the last four and Las Vegas resident Jim Colbert won this event in 1995 and 1996 when he was dominating the Tour. The customary short-figure favourites are again prohibitive, but this week there is no Gil Morgan, Tom Kite or Tom Watson, so there is less value than usual in the 2nd division players.

Two of this week's outright picks are regulars - Allen Doyle and Jose Maria Canizares - while Jim Thorpe is picked as a value play. Doyle secured yet another top-10 finish last week and he has the distinction of being one of only two players in the top-10 of the money list not to win an event this year. It only shows how consistent he has been all year and some books have him 4th favorite for this event. He has finishes of 11th and 15th from his two previous visits, but should do better this week and gain yet another place win.

Canizares is another whose game has stepped up a notch this year. A succession of place finishes and a win at the Toshiba Senior Classic have made him difficult to dislodge from the weekly selections. He does have a 3rd place finish in this event (1999) and on current form and confidence is capable of at least matching that this week.

The 3rd pick is Jim Thorpe courtesy of the 66/1 on offer from Surrey. He is available at 16/1 virtually everywhere else! True, he has disappointed somewhat this year, securing just one top-10 finish all year (2nd at the Mastercard), and has finishes of no better than 16th and 24th in this event, but it is the 16/1 that is the more accurate price. He has finished in the top-5 in one of every six events he has entered over the past three years and if anything, there has been a marked improvement in his form in the last month over the previous month. Would have taken the bait at 33/1, so Surrey's offering is too generous to ignore.

Outright plays:

Allen Doyle to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Jose Maria Canizares to win 20/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Jim Thorpe to win 66/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Jim Colbert to beat Jim Holtgrieve -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

Terry Dill to beat DeWitt Weaver -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder -111 @ Simon Bold

Ed Dougherty to beat Walter Morgan -111 @ Simon Bold

Vicente Fernandez to beat Lanny Wadkins -111 @ Simon Bold

Note that Five Dimes has put up 20 matchups for this regular Senior Tour event   They have even added all the ones offered by Simon Bold, but at more realistic odds. At their prices, I would still have taken Dill and Doyle from the above plays had Simon Bold not offered better those lines.

1st round plays:

Terry Dill to beat DeWitt Weaver -155 @ Five Dimes  

Jim Thorpe to beat Lanny Wadkins -150 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-1-0 and -0.55 units

Frustrating unpredictable day with the 1st round plays split and some poor positions in the 72-hole plays. Terry Dill had been at the top of the leaderboard at 2-under at one stage with a five-shot lead over Weaver, but they had very different back nines, including five shots dropped in the last three holes by Dill He lost by three. At least Thorpe's six-shot win over Wadkins was more academic.

The lines at Simon Bold looked extremely weak, but after 18 holes only one of the plays is leading! Fernandez has an eight-shot lead over Wadkins, but Colbert trails Holtgrieve by one, Dill trails Weaver by three, Doyle trails Gilder by one and Dougherty trails Morgan by one. At least they're close and there's another 36 holes to remedy the situation.

At least the outrights look promising again on this Tour. Canizares is joint 1st with two others, Thorpe is three shots back in 8th place and Doyle a shot further back in 17th.

2nd round plays:

Jose Maria Canizares to beat Vicente Fernandez -132 @ Five Dimes  

Hale Irwin to beat Allen Doyle -143 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-1-0 and -0.32 units

Split the plays again as Canizares faded down the home stretch to a three-shot loss, but at least Irwin defeated Doyle by two. Only a very slight improvement in the 72-hole plays: they now stand 2-3-0. Colbert is one shot behind Holtgrieve, Dill is two shots behind Weaver, Doyle leads Gilder by two, Dougherty trails Morgan by two and Fernandez leads Wadkins by twelve. Apart from the last matchup, they are all very close.

Not so good with the outrights, Canizares fell out of the lead to finish the day in 7th place, five shots out of the lead. Doyle is two shots further back in 11th and Thorpe is another two shots back in 25th place. Five Dimes has 3rd round matchups available, but there are no plays from their offerings.

Final update: 5-4-0 and -0.20 units for the week

No plays on the final day, but the 72-hole plays did not improve any. Colbert beat Holtgrieve by four, Dill closed on Weaver, but lost by one, Doyle beat Gilder by eleven, Dougherty lost by eight to Morgan and Fernandez beat Wadkins by fifteen. Very small return on some very weak lines!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -1.20 units

Canizares secured 2nd place again this season, but he had to share it with four other players so the return was not too great. Doyle threatened to join them, but finished two shots back in 8th place, while Thorpe never challenged and finished 21st.