Lightpath Long Island Classic

A very strong field assembles this week and it is shown in the prices. Most books have five players at single-figure odds! Alongside Hale Irwin at the top of the markets is Bruce Fleisher who has played in this event twice, has won it twice and lead wire-to-wire twice! Despite losing the playoff last week to good friend, Allen Doyle, he is the player to beat this week.

One player making his debut this week is Bobby Wadkins. He could follow in his elder brother's footsteps and win on his Senior debut, but he has struggled on the Buy.com Tour this season, making the cut just four times from twelve starts and lacks the fierce competitiveness of his brother. Most books have him as 6th favorite, but I can't see him being a force on this Tour, at least not yet.

With Fleisher available at just 5/1 and Doyle no more than 9/1, the three selections are at rather longer odds this week. They are Jim Thorpe, Dana Quigley and Walter Hall. Thorpe signalled an overdue return to form last week when he led for much of the tournament only to finish one shot out of the playoff. With top-5 finishes in this event on both his previous visits, this should be another good week for him.

Quigley continued his fine form last week when he followed up his victory at the SBC Senior Open with a top-10 finish at the State Farm Senior Classic. Ultra-keen to play competitively, his confidence and enjoyment with the game must be at all-time high levels. He must also fancy his chances this week as he returns a course on which he has had success. In 1997, he was a Monday qualifier and beat Jay Sigel in a playoff to win the event. He has since finished 12th, 8th and was runner-up to Fleisher last year. At unexpectedly large odds, he looks a great value play.

With so many single-figure odds available this week, there is a lot of value elsewhere and there is certainly some in Walter Hall. Available at 100/1, the safety of the 5 places with Stan James at slightly lower odds seems prudent. He has been extremely consistent with top-20 finishes in eight of his last ten events and is a much better player than the odds suggest. He also has an excellent record in this event, having finished in the top-20 on all four previous visits and was runner-up to Gary Player in 1998. A top-5 finish would be very nice!

Outright plays:

Jim Thorpe to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Dana Quigley to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Walter Hall to win 80/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

72-hole plays:

Jim Thorpe to beat Bob Gilder +103 @ Five Dimes
Happy to oppose a player who has never played on this course with an outright selection who has a great record on this course. The dog odds are a bonus!

Gil Morgan to beat Bobby Wadkins -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
As stated above, I can't see Wadkins being competitive this week. Will take Morgan in this matchup for many a year!

Jay Sigel to beat Mike Smith -111 @ Simon Bold
Smith finished 6th last week, but it is a rather false reflection of form: it was the result of a great 2nd round, he failed to break par in the other two. In his previous five events he had failed to finish in the top-25, so is one to oppose, especially with Sigel who has been in good since returning from injury and has had four top-4 finishes in seven attempts at this title

Final update: 2-1-0 and -1.30 units

Rather like the Ladies matchup plays, a winning week ruined by the 3-unit play. Got it completely wrong with Wadkins   He won the event   Following a double-bogey on the 2nd hole with a double-eagle on the 3rd can certainly settle the nerves! He beat Morgan by six shots. In the other two plays, Thorpe beat Gilder by five and Sigel beat Smith by seven.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +5.50 units

So close to that 80/1 winner! Walter Hall surged to within one shot of the lead at the turn, but could only par in and finished two shots behind Wadkins. Thorpe also struggled to break par all day long and fell from 3rd overnight to 7th and out of the money. Quigley finished 43rd.