SBC Senior Classic

Joe Inman may have won this event for three years running, but the SBC Senior Classic has moved to Valencia GC this year, the home of the 1998 Nissan Open. Course form is therefore of little use, but at least the new venue is well-known. The fairways are tree-lined and predominantly dog-legs so accuracy off the tee will be important to set up an approach to the green. With all the 'name' players in the field, it should be expected to be a duel amongst them, but the last two winners on the Senior PGA Tour have been priced 33/1 and 66/1.

With no predictions that I can repeat last week's 1-2-3, this week's selections are Gil Morgan, Allen Doyle and Doug Tewell. Morgan is priced at single figure so is win only, but given that his last three finishes read 1st, 2nd and 2nd via playoff, that should not be overly prohibitive. While they are playing on a different course this time, he is a two-time winner of this event in 1996 and 1997 and that should give him at least a psychological boost this week to compete for a title he has already held. He may not be the straightest driver on the Tour, but he is showing some of his old dominant form and looks set for another very high finish.

Allen Doyle has been displaying equally good form, but without winning. His worst finish in five starts this year has been 7th and they have generally been improving each week. He was just one shot out of the playoff last week and is one of the straightest drivers on Tour, averaging 80% of fairways hit over the past twelve months. More likely to place than win, but very capable of achieving either on his current form.

To differ from last week's 3 selections, Canizares is expected to have a mild fallout from winning his first Senior PGA title and is replaced by Doug Tewell this week. While his form has not been particularly good of late, he does have two top-10 finishes this season and is very accurate with both his driver and his irons. That will be important this week, so if he can find some form with the flat stick then he will surely go close.

BTW, UKBetting have some very attractive prices on a number of players this week - Morgan 10/1, Doyle 25/1, Canizares 66/1, Quigley 66/1 to name a few - but they have introduced e/w betting at just 3 places and at 1/5 odds. In protest at this scandalous change of policy, they are being boycotted until they reverse their e/w policy! We don't want this to be the thin end of the wedge!

Outright plays:

Gil Morgan to win 7/1 @ Surrey

Allen Doyle to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Doug Tewell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Final update: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Looks like I had more of a fallout from last week than Canizares did! He managed to stay in the top-2 all week and was unfortunate to finish 2nd to Jim Colbert, so he was definitely the wrong player to drop. None of the 3 selections challenged at all. Doyle finished 13th, Morgan 21st and Tewell 34th. After last week's performance it just goes to show how unpredictable this game really is