The Transamerica

After two events in three weeks that have been played in debut courses, it is a relief that the players return to California for an event that has been staged at Silverado since 1989. The area is famous for its wine-growing and it provides a very scenic backdrop to this course. The Robert Trent Jones-designed course is not particularly difficult though there are many trees that are strategically placed to alter shots. Apart from that, this is a standard, short by Tour standards, course and low-scoring should be in evidence again this week. One player making his Senior PGA Tour debut, though he turned 50 in June, is Roger Maltbie. On the basis of this years debutants, he should be one to watch!

The three outright selections are Allen Doyle, Gary McCord and Jose Maria Canizares. With 8/1 the standard price on Doyle, it was a welcome surprise to see Stan James offer a significant differential. It affords an each-way play and given that Doyle has finished in the top-3 without winning in his last three events it is a useful safeguard. He finished 8th last year, but pushed Fleisher very close two years when finishing runner-up. Should be a surprise if he doesn't get at least a place finish.

This will be McCord's fifth start in six events and that is quite re-orientation of his golfing duties. But when he has finished in the top-10 in his last five Tour events, it is no surprise that he is taking a short sabbatical from commentating. Having finished in the top-10 in this event in the last two years, he was always likely to tee it up here, but if he turn his excellent form into his first victory for two years, he will be a very profitable selection.

The final selection is not in the same form as the other two and this is reflected in his price. However two top-20 finishes in his last three events, and 3rd in the 3M Championship and 7th in the Long Island Classic in the two starts prior to those events, is evidence that Canizares can still compete at this level. He certainly could at the start of the year when he was a regular selection and rarely finished outside the top-10, winning the Toshiba Senior Classic. This week he returns to a course on which he has finished 3rd-8th-3rd in the last three years and so may be able to raise his game again in vineyard country.

Outright selections

Allen Doyle to win 12/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Gary McCord to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Jose Maria Canizares to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

54-hole plays:

Allen Doyle to beat Bobby Wadkins -132 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
The Tour debutants have made some headlines this year and Wadkins made his own by winning on his Senior Tour debut when he beat Doyle into 2nd place by a shot. That was then, but now, in their last six shared events, Doyle has beaten Wadkins on all but one occasion. With Doyle's record on this course and his form in the last three weeks in particular, he should beat Wadkins once again

Larry Nelson to beat Don Pooley -155 @ Five Dimes
I continue to oppose the debutants with more experienced players. Pooley has finished 4th twice in his five starts on the Senior Tour, but does not look to be capable of winning, at this stage, each week which is something that Nelson has achieved four times this season already, more than any other player on Tour

Final update: 1-1-0 and +1.45 units

Split the plays as Doyle finished twelve shots ahead of Wadkins and Nelson finished four shots behind Pooley. Small profit on the matchups to negate the small loss on the outrights.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -1.65 units

Doyle led after the 1st and 2nd rounds, but not when it mattered. He came back from early bogeys in the last round only to be edged out into 4th in a blanket finish across the line. McCord finished 15th and Canizares 27th.