US Senior Open

Rather like the Senior PGA Championship, this is a major with a 'major' feel to it. Both are played on courses that are prepared for maximum toughness separate the great players from the money-accumulators. Uneven lies on fairways that are lined by trees, this is a typical Donald Ross course that has consistently featured in the top-100 of both the 'America's Greatest Courses' and 'America's Best Classical Courses'. It is also listed as one of the first 100 clubs established in the United States.

A traditional course and a traditional US Open setup greet the players this week. Not that last year's event was any indication that this was a tough event. Hale Irwin set or equalled five different records last year at Saucon Valley. In the six years that he has entered this event, he has won it twice and never finished out of the top-5. Very impressive, but at the odds given, he is not a viable choice. Instead, the three outright picks this week are Gil Morgan, Allen Doyle and Dana Quigley.

Morgan has been a selection on several occasions this year but his two victories this year have not fallen on those occasions. Time to make amends. One of those victories was only two weeks ago in the Instinet Classic when he managed to keep that week's selection, Tom Jenkins, at distance. Since his victory in the ACE Group Classic at the start of the year he has finished in the top-5 in eight of eleven events and comes into the event in strong enough form to improve on his previous best of 3rd in this event (1997, 1999).

The introduction of Ladbrokes into the market with their 5 places option is good news for the Allen Doyle pick. Incredible consistency sees him top the top-10 stats and be 2nd behind Irwin in the All-Round stats, but he has finished 5th in three of his last six events! He has finished 13th and 8th in the last two years and was 4th at the Senior PGA this year. He has the accurate game needed for this event and maybe he might convert his chances this week and secure his first win of the year.

The 5th place option on Dana Quigley would have been welcome last week as that was where he finished alongside Doyle. With top-10 finishes in five of his last eight events/weeks, Quigley has rediscovered the form that pushed Morgan so close at the ACE Group Classic earlier this year.  He has not finished in the top-10 in four attempts at this event, but he has always been on the fringes of contention and featured strongly in the Senior PGA Championship earlier this year until a poor weekend. Available at twice the odds of Doug Tewell, he shades the 3rd spot.

Outright plays:

Gil Morgan to win 12/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes

Allen Doyle to win 20/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes

Dana Quigley to win 66/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes

All e.w. bets are with the 5 places option.

Nothing from Five Dimes' 72-hole lines, but one for today.

1st round play:

Vicente Fernandez to beat Hubert Green -118 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 0-1-0 and -1.18 units

Fernandez had a horrible 79 on day one - easily not the worst of the day (89) - to lose by six shots to Green. Very disappointing. Don't like any of Five Dimes' offerings for the 2nd round, so will just cheer on Morgan and Quigley on day two. Morgan is 2nd, just one shot behind Fleisher and Quigley is 4th, just one shot further back. After an opening 78, looks like Doyle's run of top-10 finishes is coming to an end.

Didn't think to check the Starnet books for Senior lines last night, so oversight corrected, there are now a couple of plays for today.

2nd round plays:

Bruce Fleisher to beat Jack Nicklaus -135 @ Sportfanatik [2 units]

Larry Nelson to beat Ray Floyd -115 @ Sportfanatik

2nd round update: 2-0-0 and +3.00 units

Nice offerings from the Starnet books this week! Fleisher beat Nicklaus by one and Nelson beat Floyd by three to more than make up for the first day loss. In the outrights, Morgan and Quigley are still in contention in 2nd and 4th place respectively, while Doyle at least showed his true colors in the 2nd round with a 67 to jump to 22nd. He'll need two more of them to catch the leaders!

3rd round plays:

Bruce Fleisher to beat Isao Aoki -125 @ Sportfanatik [3 units]

Hale Irwin to beat Jack Nicklaus -150 Sportfanatik [2 units]

4th round play:

Bruce Fleisher to beat Larry Nelson -108 @ Five Dimes

Will update standings at conclusion of 3rd round.

3rd round update: 0-1-1 and -3.75 units

Rather spoilt this week's card with these picks. Very close matches throughout, but Fleisher had a very poor close to the round and lost by three, while Irwin and Nicklaus both tied with sub-par rounds. Not that common this week!

Final update: 1-0-0 and +1.00 units for the day; 3-2-1 and -0.93 units for the week

Fleisher won the event with some impressive par-golf. It was too much for Nelson who took seven more shots in the final round than Fleisher. Disappointing to have a losing week on the matchups, primarily because of one play.

Update on outright plays: 2-1 and +0.37 units

So close ... and barely nothing to show for it. Morgan's poor course management on the last hole cost him a bogey and a place in a playoff with Fleisher. Quigley looked like securing a profitable top-5 finish until the last round. He finished 11th, but it was a case of what might have been with Doyle. His six-under-par for 54 holes were matched by no-one else and the winning score was level-par. However, his opening 78 was the killer. It was a great achievement to finish in a tie for 4th with Nicklaus and Colbert and secure a small profit, but what might have been with all three of them ...