3M Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Doug Tewell to win 15/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Five Dimes
Twice a winner this year and in a run of very consistent form at the moment: no worse than 11th in his last six starts. He looks to be playing well enough to win and finished a close 2nd to Lietzke last year on this course. The top-3 last year was primarily comprised of players who were accurate off the tee and had good greens in regulation stats. Tewell still fits that bill: he ranks 1st in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation this season.

Allen Doyle to win 20/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
Doyle finished a lowly 47th last year, but having been 6th after the 1st round it is likely that the events of the previous month just caught up on him. He had won two events in the previous four weeks including his first Senior major and had lost out by a shot the previous week to Bobby Wadkins in the Lightpath Long Island Classic. This year he comes into the event without such pressures and comes off his best finish since May. The 2nd most accurate player off the tee on Tour, he should remain in contention this year.

Gil Morgan to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not the most accurate player off the tee, but he did finish 3rd last year. He has a much lighter schedule these days - the last time he played back-to-back events was in June when he finished 6th in the Senior PGA Championship and won the BellSouth Senior Classic the week afterwards. He was in contention throughout last week before finishing 8th and looks good for another decent finish this week.

Matchup play (2 units):

Bobby Wadkins to beat Bob Gilder +108 @ Five Dimes
Gilder's 63rd place finish last week was to be expected after winning back-to-back titles via playoffs. There can be no doubting his form and he should improve considerably this week, but Wadkins is also in fine form and leads 8-3 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months. He also finished 7th last year, whereas Gilder has yet to play the course. Seems a lot in favour before the price is brought into consideration.

Final update:

Matchups: 0-1; -2.00 units

Wadkins/Gilder LOST by 5

Outrights: 2-1; +3.75 units

Tewell 3rd
Doyle 5th
Morgan withdrew

Stymied by Gilder! He eagled the last hole to tie Doyle for 5th place and so divide the payout for the top-5 finish. Tewell had a good last round, but was never going to catch Irwin.

Postscript: It seems that Five Dimes are not dividing the payout on top-5 places.