The Napa Valley Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Doug Tewell to win 16/1 e.w. @ Gamebookers
With no Irwin, Kite winless in seven months, Fleisher with just one win in the last fifteen months and Gilder showing signs of fatigue, surely it's time for Tewell to step back up to the plate. He recovered his form in September to finish in the top-15 in his last three events and has taken a two-week break. He should be fresh and eager to avenge Rachel's dramatic snatching of the title from his grasp last year.

Sammy Rachels to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet or BetInternet
Don't often side with defending champions, but this is a large price with such an average field. Last year he became the only person to eagle the final hole to win this event and in so doing he denied Tewell the chance of a playoff. Has won on Tour this season already and followed up his 2nd place finish in the SAS Championship with a top-10 finish last week as a selection. He only finished one shot out of the top-5 and three shots out of the playoff on that occasion and should put up a spirited defence of his title.

Fuzzy Zoeller to win 44/1 e.w. @ Gamebookers
Very large price considering many others have him at less than half these odds. Zoeller may not have played this course previously, but he has already won one of the Senior majors this year and finished 2nd by a shot in the Siebel Classic. Not too disappointing a rookie season. Hasn't played since the PGA Championship, but he was very unlucky not to make the cut in that event. He missed it by one shot. If he plays anywhere near as well this week, he will stand a good chance of winning this event.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Jose Maria Canizares to beat Mike McCullough -108 @ Five Dimes
The return of two of last year's regulars for outright plays, albeit now only for the matchups. Canizares only has three top-10 finishes this year, but he has recently become more of a contender for the first 36 holes at least. He has beaten McCullough in their last two events and should stand a very good chance of another win on this course. He is 38-under-par for 12 rounds around Silverado and has finished in the top-10 in three of four starts. By contrast, McCullough is level-par for 21 rounds and beyond a 5th place finish in 1999 and a 12th place finish in 1995, he has finished outside the top-40 on his other five visits.

Morris Hatalsky to beat Bob Gilder +100 @ Five Dimes
No course form for Hatalsky, but will predict that Gilder will struggle to repeat his 4th place finish of last year and will take these odds. Gilder had a purple patch of double back-to-back victories, but Hatalsky is far more consistent and this is reflected in his 14-4-2 head-to-head record against Gilder.

Dana Quigley to beat Tom Purtzer -115 @ Five Dimes
Quigley is another former regular who reappears this week. Had a difficult summer, but has showed some better signs of form recently as he approaches his 200th consecutive Senior PGA Tour event. He has finished in the top-15 in the last two events and has done so in three of five previous visits to Silverado. On the two occasions that he failed to finish in the top-15, he opened with very poor opening rounds (76 in 1997; 77 last year). At this stage of the season and when he has played every event, a non-taxing weekend is to be expected. As long as he has a decent first round, Quigley should have another improving event and beat Purtzer who has yet to play this course.

Final update:

Matchups: 0-3-0; -6.46 units

Canizares/McCullough LOST by 1
Hatalsky/Gilder LOST by 4
Quigley/Purtzer LOST by 5

Outrights: 0-3; -6.00 units

Tewell 16th
Rachels 14th
Zoeller 9th

Ouch! Poor matchup plays with Hatalsky being the highest placed selection in just 20th, while could have gained something from the outrights. All three were in the top-7 as they started the back nine, but Tewell and Rachels were over-par for the back nine and Zoeller needed a birdie at the last to shoot level-par for the nine. Disappointing failure to get the players across the line this week.