RJR Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Bruce Lietzke to win 17/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Can't ignore his closing 62 last week which gained him his second top-4 finish in two weeks. After that performance, I expected his odds to be significantly lower as he is a player who has enjoyed fairly long runs on form on this Tour rather than the occasional big tournament. Wasn't old enough to play two years ago, but of little concern after Sunday's round.

Larry Nelson to win 22/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Nelson replaces Doyle in the line-up this week as he has been playing just as well, though less often because of his back problems, but has a tremendous record on this course. He averages a fraction over 67 from his 12 rounds on this course and technically he is the defending champion from 2000 when he beat Gil Morgan and Jim Dent in a six-hole playoff.

Doug Tewell to win 30/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (1 unit to win & 1 unit to finish in top-5)
Had a slow start last week - he was five shots behind the winner, Bob Gilder, after 18 holes and was only six shots behind at the end of the tournament - but played well over the weekend. Well enough to show that 30/1 was not a valid price for someone who has won twice this year. Available at those odds again and with two good showings on this course - five of six rounds at 68 or better - he should again perform better than these odds give him credit.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Allen Doyle to beat Tom Jenkins -120 @ Five Dimes
Not selected as an outright play this week after his lacklustre display last week, but should beat Jenkins. His form is still good, despite finishing 36th last week, he has finished in the top-15 in 13 of his last 16 starts and in two of his three visits to this course. Over the same time period, Jenkins has finished in the top-15 in just 8 of 17 starts and in just one of three visits to this course. And then there is the disappointment of losing the playoff last week after shooting a final round 62 to get there.

Doug Tewell to beat Hubert Green -137 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Huge leap of faith with Tewell. As well as playing much better over the weekend, the central parts of his game - driving accuracy and greens in regulation - showed big improvements last week over his 'slump' of the previous two weeks. He ranked 3rd in driving accuracy and 6th in greens in regulation last week and with confidence restored in these parts of his game, he should have a good week. In contrast, Green has reproduced the form that show him win the Long Island Classic six weeks ago and finish 2nd the following week. When he won the Long Island Classic, he ranked 3rd in both greens in regulation and putts per round; last week he was ranked 25th and 12th respectively en route to finishing 13th. With a poor record in this event - 66th, 72nd, 8th, 49th - Green should be no match for an improving Tewell.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-0-1; +2.00 units

Doyle/Jenkins WON by 6
Tewell/Green TIED (Push)

Outrights: 1-2; -3.83 units

Lietzke 32nd
Nelson 4th
Tewell 10th

Loss-making event, but the best one of the week! Disappointing to only tie the Tewell/Green matchup. Tewell had never been behind all week, but 17 pars on his final round is not good enough on this Tour. Fleisher won at 19-under-par through 54 holes. Nelson did gain a top-4 place, but shared with two others to gain only a return of the stake and small change.