Turtle Bay Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

Allen Doyle to win 14/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, William Hill, Paddy Power and Centrebet
Fleisher broke his winless year last month, so maybe it is time for Doyle. He will be hard-pressed to beat Irwin, but with top-3 finishes in each of the last three years, though only one was on this course, Doyle looks to be a Hawaiian specialist and can certainly gain a place win at least.

Jim Thorpe to win 20/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Definitely a player who blossoms in late season. In 2000, he won back-to-back title in October and in 2001, he won back-to-back titles in September. He hasn't won since collecting the first major of the season, but has been in good form and can boast top-3 finishes in this event and in the MasterCard Championship.

Sammy Rachels to win 55/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
Wouldn't have been considered but for the price. His only Senior start in Hawaii (2002 MasterCard championship) saw him finish 27th, the same position he finished in his only other start in Hawaii, the 1984 Hawaiian Open. But he finished 2nd in the last Tour event, has won once this season already and was a double-winner in his rookie season last year. Obviously capable of winning in this company and that is not reflected in this price.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Fleisher -170 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
Short odds, but they represent Irwin having a 63% chance of beating Fleisher. But Irwin lead Fleisher 6-2 in head-to-head matchups over the last three months and 19-4 over the last twelve months, but well in excess of 63%. He is the defending champion whereas Fleisher didn't play last year and his record in Hawaii and in this event in particular (three-time champion) is second to no-one. A short price, but a far greater than 63% chance of an Irwin victory.

Allen Doyle to beat Bob Gilder +110 @ Five Dimes
Good odds for a player who may not have won this season, but still has a very close head-to-head record with Gilder and has a much better record in Hawaii. Gilder played in this tournament last year and in the MasterCard Championship at the start of this season and finished outside the top-10 on both occasions. Three top-3 finishes from three starts in this event is enough evidence that Doyle should be a contender this week and is retained for the matchups as well.

Don Pooley to beat Tom Purtzer -135 @ Five Dimes
Both have been in good form recently, but Pooley has a considerable advantage of local knowledge. He played last year and finished 11th. Purtzer was not eligible for the Senior Tour at the time and the last time he played in Hawaii was in the 1987 Hawaiian Open. During his PGA Tour career, he played in Hawaii twelve times, missed the cut four times and never finished in the top-20. He didn't return after 1987 and this does not look like being a good week in a location where experience matters.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-1-1; +2.00 units

Irwin/Fleisher WON by 8
Doyle/Gilder LOST by 3
Pooley/Purtzer TIED (Push)

Outrights: 0-2; -4.00 units

Doyle 21st
Thorpe dnp
Rachels 9th

Disappointing to end the event in a loss. Rachels finished one shot out of the top-5 and just three shots out the playoff, while the matchups should have been much better, but Pooley's closing 78 ended what looked like a comfortable position.