3M Championship

Outright plays (2 units):

D.A. Weibring to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Weibring has played just five times since turning 50 in May and he has obviously settled into Tour life very quickly as his last three finishes have been 11th, 5th and 4th. As a Tour rookie, he has not played this course, but few are in this form. When Bet365 offer single-figure odds for five players, 16/1 doesn't look too skinny.

Tom Purtzer to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Purtzer also has no course history as he missed this event last year through injury and he has been battling back from injury recently, but he can also a 5th and a 4th place finish in his last events. He appears to be approaching the form in which he ended the 2002 season and started this one when he recorded seven top-6 finishes in eleven starts, including a win in the SBC Senior Classic. Accurate driving does not appear to be essential at the TPC of the Twin Cities, so he should go well on his debut.

Tom Jenkins to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Very large odds for a player who has already won this season (Bruno's Memorial Classic); he is generally about half these odds elsewhere. He only finished 18th as a selection last week, but he has still finished in the top-10 in five of his last eight starts and on this course in 2001. He had an ugly 82 in the 2nd round year last year, but was under-par in the other two rounds and a 70 would have seen him finish in the top-5. Nice price for a player in good form who has five of six rounds under par around this course.

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Jose Maria Canizares to beat Bruce Summerhays -115 @ Five Dimes
Apart from his 3rd place finish at Turnberry, Summerhays has shown few glimpses of competitiveness since 2001 and he has not done so on this course in the last two years. Canizares finished ahead of both times and in six of their last eight common events on this Tour.

Allen Doyle to beat Tom Kite -115 @ Five Dimes
Similar story with Kite. He did finish 2nd in the Ford Senior Players Championship before finishing 4th at Turnberry, but has otherwise managed one other top-5 finish this year. Doyle has beaten him in six of their last eight common events on this Tour and didn't display any post-win hangovers when he was last winning events in 2001.

Gil Morgan to beat Bruce Fleisher +110 @ Five Dimes
Fleisher sounded genuinely surprised that he had played so well in his interviews after the 1st round last week. Not a good sign that he will hold on for the win! He also plays this week on a course on which he has previously played well, but his confidence sounds fragile and with Morgan also leading his opponent 6-2-0 h2h over the last three months, I take the underdog in this match.

Stewart Ginn to beat John Jacobs -108 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
For the fourth time in four plays, the selection has a 6-2-0 h2h lead over the past three months. Spooky! Ginn has not looked like winning since he took the 2002 Ford Senior Players Championship, but he has become a very consistent performer: six top-20 finishes in his last seven starts. Jacobs has one top-20 finish in his last seven starts - the win at the Senior PGA Championship - but his best finish otherwise has been 42nd. Quite a contrast!

Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Lietzke -125 @ Five Dimes
Irwin has not played enough in the last three months to earn a 6-2-0 h2h lead over Lietzke, though he still leads 2-1-0 despite his injured back. He did set this event as his target for a return to competitive golf as he is the defending champion and without the injury history he would be at much lower odds. If fit, he should beat Lietzke who has been far from his best in his two starts since winning his first major last in June.

1st round plays (2 units unless stated):

Tom Purtzer to beat Bob Gilder -115 @ Five Dimes
Stewart Ginn to beat John Jacobs -113 @ Five Dimes [4 units]

1st round update: 1-1-0; -2.52 units

Purtzer/Gilder WON by 3
Ginn/Jacobs LOST by 1

2nd round plays (2 units):

Hugh Biaocchi to beat Jerry McGee -120 @ Five Dimes
Tom Purtzer to beat Mike McCullough -123 @ Five Dimes
Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Lietzke -127 @ Five Dimes
Leonard Thompson to beat Bob Murphy -122 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-1-0; +3.46 units

Biaocchi/McGee WON by 7
Purtzer/McCullough WON by 5
Irwin/Lietzke LOST by 4
Thompson/Murphy WON by 1

3rd round plays (2 units):

Tom Jenkins to beat Ed Dougherty -130 @ Five Dimes
Hugh Biaocchi to beat Ben Crenshaw -130 @ Five Dimes
Mike Smith to beat Bob Murphy -115 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-3-0; -7.50 units

Jenkins/Dougherty LOST by 3
Biaocchi/Crenshaw LOST by 2
Smith/Murphy LOST by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -4.92 units

Canizares/Summerhays WON by 1
Doyle/Kite LOST by 4
Morgan/Fleisher WON by 8
Ginn/Jacobs LOST by 6
Irwin/Lietzke LOST by 4

18-holes: 4-5-0; -6.56 units

Outrights: 0-3; -6.00 units

Weibring 10th
Purtzer 10th
Jenkins 34th

What a disastrous Sunday! Had this day been rained off and the event curtailed to 36 holes, I would have been 47 units richer!!! Three very poor 3rd round plays, a resurgent Tom Kite and then there were the outrights ... First, Weibring need to birdie the par-five last hole to secure a top-5 place win and bogeys it and then Purtzer ... he leads the event after 36 holes and was in a duel with Crenshaw for most of the day until he reached the 17th hole in the joint lead. It is a par-3 over water and he walks off with a SEVEN. He doesn't even earn a place win and finishes four shots behind Levi